While many economic uncertainties lingered, some countries in Asia appeared to be faring better than others. Geopolitical tensions and tariff turmoil triggered by United States’ President Donald Trump policies were anticipated to be key factors in next year’s outlook. The lubricant industry was expected to see steady growth in some countries because of an expanding middle class and increased passenger car sales, while it may experience little growth or even contract in other nations. Likewise, base oil demand may vary, depending on specific applications, with API Group II and Group III expected to see fairly healthy consumption from the automotive industry and industrial segment, and more robust growth in developing applications such as dielectric fluids and coolants.

Group I
The heavy Group I base oils showed some length, with additional spot availability emerging from Southeast Asia and Europe over the last month, which exerted downward pressure on pricing. These cargoes offset the temporary tightening of Middle East supplies caused by Luberef’s turnaround in November-December. Ample supplies of the Group II heavy grades, which can replace Group I heavy cuts in many applications, added to the downward pressure.

Even though Group I availability has improved, bright stock was still comparatively tight because global Group I capacity has shrunk over the last two decades, and bright stock remains a difficult cut to replace. However, new output of an extra-heavy Group II cut at ExxonMobil’s Singapore plant may be go into some applications that traditionally required Group I bright stock. The latest Group I offers were met with lukewarm buying interest as buyers preferred to resume purchases in the new year and contract volumes have also been dialed down by some buyers eager to finish the year with low stocks.

A Thai producer offered 100-metric-ton cargoes of Group I SN500 and bright stock during the week. The latest offer for the SN500 was reported at $920 per ton FCA Thailand and bright stock at $1,300/t FCA Thailand, for January 2026 shipment. Last week’s prices were down by $30/t from the previous week’s offers. Fresh offer levels were not available by the publishing deadline and it was not clear whether the supplier would communicate any prices this week given the New Year’s holidays.

It was heard that there were also small cargoes available from Indonesia, with the latest numbers for the SN130 grade hovering in the low $700s/ton ex-works Indonesia, and bright stock in the high $1,200s/t ex-works.

In China, buyers preferred to keep inventories from mounting at the end of the year and buying appetite was therefore thin. Domestic prices were stable since suppliers did not expect that lower prices would trigger additional orders, with the exception of bright stock, which was adjusted down given plentiful supplies, both of local product as well as imports. Demand was not likely to show an uptick until late January when buyers start to prepare inventories for the spring season and prefer to receive shipments before the Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February. More than adequate availability of Group II cuts was also exerting pressure on Group I indications.

In India, import prices were under pressure because of the possibility for some buyers of securing competitively-priced European product, although it was subject to certain restrictions and not accepted by many players. Prices for material from other origins such as Southeast Asia were stable-to-soft because of prospects of subdued demand in January amid plentiful supplies.

Group II
A number of Group II suppliers have suspended offers as they prioritized contractual commitments, particularly as the light grades were tighter. They were also hoping that an uptick in demand in January would help prop up prices. The heavy-viscosity cuts were still more readily available than the light grades and prices have edged down, especially since demand for the heavy cuts tends to wane in the colder months in key markets such as China.

A similar trend to that observed in recent weeks persisted in China, with the light grades seeing more limited availability than the heavy cuts. Importers therefore kept prices for the light grades firm, while values for the 500N were revised down in hopes of attracting buying interest. Domestic availability of most grades was also considered plentiful, with domestic suppliers keeping prices mostly steady this week.

In India, import prices for the 500N grade continued to slide on ample availability and limited buying interest. Conversely, import prices for the Group II 70N grade and 150N maintained their course as these grades were less readily available.

Along similar lines, domestic 70N and 150N base oils were in tighter supply and prices were adjusted up, while values for the heavy grades were lowered. There was some buying interest spurred by climbing gasoil prices and fears that values might be marked up, but for the most part, January negotiations have been concluded.

Some import transactions involved U.S. material, but the number of deals was smaller than in years past, when large volumes of U.S. base stocks moved to India towards the end of the year as U.S. suppliers tried to find a home for their extra barrels.

In production news, national oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s Group II supply might be slightly reduced this month as the producer performed maintenance before the start-up of its expanded facilities. The producer was heard to have completed its Group III expansion work at the Haldia refinery, and started a turnaround on the Group II trains in November, but the producer has built inventories to cover contractual requirements during the outage.

Group III
Fairly balanced supply and demand helped Group III suppliers keep spot prices mostly steady, with the 8 cSt still exposed to downward pressure because of more plentiful availability. At the same time, 4 cSt supplies from Malaysia were limited, according to sources.

In China, buyers have generally been more inclined to procure domestic cargoes because of the advantage of price and proximity compared to imports. Importers offered some discounts to attract business, but buying interest was subdued. Many contract customers continued to buy from their regular foreign suppliers because of approvals and long-term supply relationships. The restart of Shanxi Lu’an’s base oil plant following an unplanned shutdown earlier this month should bring more Group III supplies to the market.

Group III base oils have been under downward pressure in China both because of the ongoing competition between importers and local producers, and due to added domestic Group III production planned in the next couple of years. The additional coal-to-liquids capacity was expected to come on-stream in 2027, along with increased polyalphaolefin and naphthenic base oils production.

Similarly in India, the prospect of increased domestic production as national oil company Indian Oil Corp. has completed an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia was placing downward pressure on prices. The refinery was heard to have shut down in November for maintenance on the existing Group II trains. Nevertheless, there will still be a significant deficit of Group III base oils and Indian consumers are likely to continue securing cargoes from Asian and Middle Eastern sources.

This week, Group III prices in India were reported as largely unchanged from a week ago on thin trading and the approach of the end of the year, but increased replenishment activity was expected in January.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

Details about recent shipping fixtures emerged this week. A 15,000-ton base oils lot was heard to have loaded on the Fairchem Pathfinder from Singapore to West Coast India between Dec. 5-10. A 3,500-ton cargo was understood to have been shipped from Malacca, Malaysia, to Santos, Brazil, on the Southern Owl between Dec. 14-17. Approximately 10,000 tons were loaded in Singapore and Malacca for Melbourne, Australia, on the Golden Leader on Dec. 13-15. A 9,850-ton lot was shipped from Onsan, South Korea, to Mumbai, India, on the Chemstar Sapphire on Dec. 13-15.

• A 5,000-ton cargo was quoted for shipment from Daesan, South Korea, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates (UAE), between Jan. 16-31.
• A 4,000-ton parcel was mentioned for loading in Sriracha, Thailand, to Ras Al  Khaimah, UAE, between Jan. 6-10.
• A 9,000-ton lot was discussed for shipment from the U.S. Gulf to Mumbai and the UAE between Dec. 20 and Jan. 20.
• Approximately 10,000 to 12,000 metric tons were likely to be shipped from Yeosu, South Korea, to Godau, Vietnam, in 1H Jan.
• A 3,600-metric ton cargo was on the table for shipment from Qatar to West Coast India between January 18-20.
• A second cargo of 6,300 tons was also mentioned to cover the same route, with the lifting expected between Jan. 21-22.
• A 4,500-ton lot was likely to be shipped from Mailiao, Taiwan, to Karachi, Pakistan, in early Jan.
• Around 3,000 tons were expected to be lifted in Onsan for Merak, Indonesia, between Dec. 20-30.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has eased as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
• Luberef has secured a new feedstock supply agreement for the company’s Jeddah facility. The facility had been expected to close by mid-2026, but the new supply agreement will allow it to continue operations beyond 2026. As a result, the company will maintain its current production capacity of 275,000 tons per year of Group I base oils. With the completion of the Growth-II Project in Yanbu, Luberef’s total production capacity will reach 1.53 million tons per year, making it the only supplier in the region able to offer Group I, Group II, and Group III base oils.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants in Japan. Mizushima A underwent maintenance from October to November.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• Idemitsu’s Chiba unit completed a turnaround at the end of July/early August
• Chennai Petroleum completed a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand was offline for maintenance in May
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed a capacity expansion at its Singapore Resid Upgrade Project and commenced on-spec production in August. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock. The project is an upgrade of the company’s integrated manufacturing complex, which will allow it to expand large-scale production of its global EHC Group II slate and meet growing demand for high-performance lubricants in the Asia-Pacific region, the company said.
• Indian Oil Corp. was understood to have completed a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in November. The producer also completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in December.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year, but there was no confirmation whether the plant had been shut down in October.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in April 2026 for approximately 45 days. The company had cut run rates in March for several weeks due to feedstock limitations, but increased rates in late May.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last for several more months.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories.

Group III

• Indian Oil Corp. has completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia and a start-up of the expanded plant has been achieved this month.
• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and has been restarted. Term supplies were not expected to be affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two or three weeks in early May.
• Bapco began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec restarted its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures rose on Monday as investors kept a keen eye on talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents on a possible deal to end the war in Ukraine against potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East following Saudi air strikes in Yemen. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks had fallen by more than 2% on Friday. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, was expected to lower the February price for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers for a third month in a row due to abundant supplies.

• Brent February 2026 futures were trading at $62.09 per barrel on Dec. 29, up from $61.02/bbl for front-month futures on Dec. 22 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for January 2026 settled at $60/bbl on Dec. 26, down from $60.17/bbl for front-month futures on Dec. 19 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were largely steady to soft, with values for some of the heavy grades edging down due to weaker demand and growing supplies.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 steady at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 down by $10/t at the top end of the range at $920/t-$950/t
Bright stock prices were holding at $1,310-$1,350/t
Group II 150N steady at $820/t-$860/t
500N unchanged at $960/t-$1,000/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 steady at $670/t-$710/t
SN500 slipped by $10/t to $720/t-$760/t
Bright stock prices lower by $10/t at $1,120/t-$1,160/t

Group II 150N assessed at $720/t-$760/t
500N unchanged at $780/t-$820/t

Group III grades were largely unchanged
4 cSt assessed at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt assessed at $1,050/t-$1,090/t
8 cSt held at $900/t-$940/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.