At the same time, improved sales of passenger cars and two-wheelers in some nations such as India were expected to bring higher demand for factory-fill lubricants. In November 2025, India’s automotive sector saw a significant boost, with total retail sales growing over 40% year-on-year and doubling from the previous month, largely driven by two-wheeler sales, which increased by over 50%. Passenger vehicle sales grew over 11%. The strong performance was largely attributed to recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms, which lowered vehicle prices and spurred demand, as well as the ongoing festive and wedding seasons. The financial year 2024-25 also showed robust growth, with a record 4.3 million units sold in passenger vehicles. 

Tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan could have economic repercussions for both countries as the Chinese government warned its citizens about travel to Japan and led Chinese airlines to slash over 900 Japan-bound flights in December.

Fresh spot offers typically emerge from Southeast Asia and Japan, and this week was no exception. Sources reported that a few small cargoes of heavy grades and bright stock were available from Thailand and Japan, despite a recent shutdown at a Japanese plant.

A key Thai producer has small quantities of SN500 and bright stock available, with prices having come down from previous offer levels. Last week’s offer of 100 metric tons of SN500 was reported at $960 per metric ton FCA Thailand and 100 tons of bright stock were available at $1,335/t FCA. These prices were valid until Nov. 25 for December loading. The previous week’s offers had stood near $965/t for the SN500 and $1,340/t for bright stock, both FCA Thailand.

There were reports of offers of small volumes of SN500 and bright stock from Japan as well, but the light grade was not offered as the supplier did not have spot availability, which was also the case for several other suppliers, leading to steeper pricing from those who had limited quantities to present.

Group I ex-tank prices continued to be under pressure in China given plentiful availability, with the heavy grades experiencing larger decreases. Imported bright stock was also plentiful despite recent shortages as imports and domestic production have improved and demand softens during the winter months. Distributors of imported material were heard to have reduced pricing to compete with domestic supplies.

In India, buying interest was lackluster because many buyers were in possession of enough product to continue running day-to-day operations. Many preferred to operate hand-to-mouth instead of holding high inventories that may lose values in the coming weeks, as prices do tend to fall during the last few days of the year.

Import volumes, together with domestic supplies, were expected to meet demand for the time being. Options to bring products in from faraway origins such as the U.S. and Europe were more limited because of tighter supplies in the U.S. and high freight rates for shipments from Europe because vessels still have to go around the southern tip of South Africa to avoid Houthi attacks near the Red Sea.

Group II
As was the case with Group I grades, Group II consumers were also focusing on acquiring adequate volumes to continue running blending operations, but not accumulate too much product before year-end. Buyers and sellers were also hoping to avoid the arrival of shipments during the festive period.

Since heavy grade margins over gasoil were still deemed attractive compared to the lighter grades, refiners continued to produce the heavy grades even though inventories were growing. The light grades were tight, with at least one South Korean producer understood to have withdrawn bulk offers, but flexibag volumes were still available. As a result of the lengthening heavy grade supplies, some suppliers continued to offer combined cargoes of the light grades with the heavy cuts to reduce inventories.

Taiwanese 500N was also offered at attractive levels by Chinese distributors to foster sales in China. While Taiwan’s export volumes were strong throughout the year, the Group II quantities shipped to China have declined over the last three years. For example, Taiwanese base oil shipments to China fell from 207,000 tons in 2022 to about 190,000 tons in 2023. This decline was partly due to China’s increasing domestic base oil production and fluctuating demand and to recent trade policy changes, such as China reinstating tariffs on certain items imported from Taiwan last year. The trade dispute, which stemmed from Taiwan’s restrictions on some Chinese imports, led China to re-impose a 6% tariff on Taiwanese base oil imports in June 2024.

Formosa was heard to have increased domestic list prices of the light grades for December shipment, and lowered the price of the heavy grade. Effective Dec. 1, the 70N and 150N were heard to have increased by New Taiwan Dollar (NT$) 0.44 per liter, while the 500N decreased by NT$1.3/liter, according to sources. (1.00 NT$ = 0.03 US$)

But China has also been working to reduce its dependence on base oil imports and has increased domestic production, mainly of Group II grades. Sluggish demand against ample supplies continued to exert downward pressure on domestic Group II heavy grades, while prices for the light grades remained relatively stable. Buying interest for the 150N cut was steady, likely because the light grades typically experience more active demand during the colder months until the spring. Imported high-viscosity base oils also saw small downward adjustments on ample supplies and slower demand.

In India, the market situation was similar to that in other countries, in that the heavy grades were more readily available and prices were therefore slipping. Import prices for the Group II 500N grade were heard to have slipped by about $5/t on a CFR India basis week on week on sluggish buying interest and ample supplies.

Spot availability of the light grade from a South Korean supplier remained strained and cargoes were required to be lifted in conjunction with the heavy grade. The high-viscosity cuts have been more plentiful and demand less robust than for the light grades for a few weeks, and this was why the supplier presented this requirement.

Indian buyers were resisting the higher offers because they hoped prices would weaken through the end of the year. They also expected to see additional spot offers for United States products, with discussions for late December/January shipments heard to be taking place, although availability appeared to be less plentiful than originally expected, possibly because of recent turnarounds at U.S. Group II plants that had tightened supplies.

Meanwhile, national oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s Group II supply was not expected to be affected by Group III expansion work at the Haldia refinery, but could see reduced availability this month as the producer was performing maintenance before the start-up of the expanded facilities near the end of the year. The turnaround on the Group II trains was heard to have started in November, but the producer has built inventories to cover contractual requirements during the outage.

Group III
Most Group III plants were running well, ensuring plentiful supplies to the region, although a turnaround at a Middle East facility has tightened spot supplies to a certain extent. The recent restart of the SK-Pertamina Group III plant in Dumai, Indonesia, brought additional supplies into the system, following a brief precautionary shutdown after a fire at the associated refinery in early October.

Spot availability from a South Korean producer was heard to remain limited, but given that demand has also declined, there was no immediate impact on the market from the tightening supplies.

In China, domestic producers continued to offer competitive prices and this allowed them to either gain or protect market share against imported products. Nevertheless, several buyers have contracts with foreign suppliers and imported volumes were therefore expected to continue making their way to China, particularly as certain approvals are linked to specific suppliers.

In India, Group III prices were generally steady, but buying interest has been lackluster because of ample existing inventories and end-users’ efforts to acquire those volumes that were necessary to keep operations running and not stockpile huge amounts of extra product. Demand from the automotive segment was expected to continue ramping up in the new year.

As mentioned previously, new domestic Group III capacity in India was anticipated to displace some import volumes once the plant starts up. National oil company Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia in the fourth quarter. The refinery was heard to have shut down in November for maintenance on the existing Group II trains.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

Details about recently concluded fixtures emerged during the week:

• It was heard that a 2,870-ton cargo was shipped from Singapore to Malaysia between Nov. 16-19.
• A 1,400-ton parcel was lifted in Ulsan, South Korea, to Jiangyin, China, between Nov. 16-18 as well.
• A little over 2,000 tons were lifted in Singapore to Merak, Indonesia, on the Eagle Sakura between Nov. 14-16.
• A second parcel of close to 6,000 tons was shipped from Singapore to Port Klang, Malaysia, on the Eagle Aquamarine between Nov. 18-20.

Meanwhile, some participants were looking to secure vessels for a number of cargoes, including:

• A 6,000 to 8,000-ton base oils cargo for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Singapore between Nov. 25 and Dec. 5.
• A 1,100-ton cargo expected to be shipped from Onsan to Bangkok, Thailand, between Dec. 10-20
• A 3,500-ton parcel for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Huizhou, China, on December 18.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has eased as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co.) has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants in Japan. Mizushima A underwent maintenance from October to November.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• Group I supply in Japan has been tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Chennai Petroleum completed a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand was offline for maintenance in May
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed a capacity expansion at its Singapore Resid Upgrade Project and commenced on-spec production in August. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock. The project is an upgrade of the company’s integrated manufacturing complex, which will allow it to expand large-scale production of its global EHC™ Group II slate and meet growing demand for high-performance lubricants in the Asia-Pacific region, the company said.
• Indian Oil Corp. was understood to have started a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in early November. The producer was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia at the end of the year.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year, but there was no confirmation whether the plant had been shut down in October.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in April 2026 for approximately 45 days.

The company had cut run rates in March for several weeks due to feedstock limitations, but increased rates in late May.

• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last for several more months.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories.

Group III

• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and has been restarted. Term supplies were not expected to be affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
• Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia at the end of the year. The plant was expected to undergo a one-month turnaround in November.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two or three weeks in early May.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec restarted its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures jumped by 2% as drone strikes damaged Russian energy infrastructure and OPEC+ decided to hold production steady in the first quarter of 2026, reigniting supply fears after a four-month downward trend.

• Brent February 2026 futures were trading at $62.84 per barrel on Dec. 1, up from $62.01/bbl for front-month futures on Nov. 24 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for December 2025 settled at $63.07/bbl on Nov. 28, up from $62.65/bbl for front-month futures on Nov. 21 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were generally steady, although the heavy grades continued to be exposed to downward pressure because of weaker demand against growing supplies.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was steady at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 held at $940/t-$980/t
Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,340-$1,380/t
Group II 150N held at $820/t-$860/t
500N at $980/t-$1,020/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was steady at $690/t-$730/t
SN500 was also unchanged at $780/t-$820/t
Bright stock hovered at $1,170/t-$1,210/t
Group II 150N was assessed at $720/t-$760/t
500N was heard near $820/t-$860/t
Group III grades were steady
4 cSt gauged at $1,090/t-$1,130/t
6 cSt held at $1,060/t-$1,100/t
8 cSt hovered at $920/t-$960/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.