Demand for industrial oils and fluids has fallen because of lower manufacturing rates in several of Asia’s economies, and the downturn has often been related to United States’ president Donald Trump’s steeper import tariffs, according to news outlets. Thailand saw third quarter GDP figures slip to four-year lows as exports and manufacturing slowed, Nikkei Asia reported. Singapore also witnessed an economic slowdown, while Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in six quarters, with GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of 1.8%. This was driven by a decline in exports and weaker domestic demand, including a significant drop in private housing investment. In the Philippines, GDP growth slowed to 4% year-on-year, down from 5.5% in the previous quarter. This deceleration was caused by weaker household consumption and reduced government spending, along with a negative impact from typhoons and a corruption scandal that eroded business and consumer confidence. 

Base oil producers faced additional challenges when trying to reduce stocks by exporting to other regions as inventories in other parts of the world were also plentiful. Softer crude oil prices over the last month also added to the bearish market sentiment.

Crude oil futures were swayed by geopolitical developments and supply disruptions in the Black Sea. Oil values slipped early in the week on news that crude loadings had resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk after a two-day suspension caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. Crude oil prices had ended higher on Friday following a roller-coaster week given export disruptions in Russia against earlier concerns of a global oil supply glut.

Group I
While prices for the API Group I light grades were generally steady, the high-viscosity cuts were more exposed to downward pressure on increasing supplies and lackluster demand. Seasonal requirements tend to favor the lighter grades for improved performance during the cold winter months. Even bright stock, which had largely defied the downward price trend, gave way to the downward pressure affecting the other heavy grades.

Most Group I spot offers emerged from Southeast Asia, but a Chinese producer offered a combined cargo of Group I SN500 and Group II N150, as well. A Chinese parcel was heard to have been shipped to Malaysia in early November, but it could not be ascertained whether it consisted of Group I and Group II base oils.

Small flexibag volumes of SN500 of Thai origin were mentioned at around $980 per metric ton FCA Thailand and bright stock at around $1,350/t-1,360/t FCA Thailand, but buying interest was reportedly muted at these levels.

The overall drive to reduce inventories has resulted in offers for Group I grades out of Singapore slipping to slightly lower levels compared to the previous week, with the heavy grades undergoing $10/t-20/t downward adjustments on an ex-tank Singapore basis.

In China, a comparable situation reigned to that observed in other parts of Asia, with prices for the heavy grades falling on account of plentiful supplies against lackluster demand. Imported bright stock has suffered a similar fate as other heavy grades, despite its tighter availability. However, bright stock demand also drops in the winter months and this has led to rising supply levels, with domestic suppliers lowering values to reduce inventories. Buyers preferred to use up existing stocks for as long as possible as they hoped prices would slip further in the coming weeks.

In India, consumers have been similarly holding off on purchases as they watched the downward price trend take hold of most heavy grades, both for imported as well as domestically-produced base oils, particularly affecting the price of bright stock as this grade has more limited use during the colder months.

Given a scheduled turnaround at a refinery in the Middle East, starting in November, buyers had been able to plan ahead and secure base oil cargoes before the shutdown and seemed to hold comfortable volumes. Buying appetite for domestic products was steady to soft, with refiners slightly adjusting down prices from the previous week to incentivise sales.

There was still not a clear picture of how the reduction in Russian oil imports into India to comply with international sanctions would be impacting prices of refined products. Refiners have pledged to reduce Russian imports, but the consequences of having to secure oil from other sources was not expected to be evident until later in the year.

Group II
As has been the case over the last month, spot prices for the Group II high-viscosity grades have declined given ample supplies and lower offers from producers eager to lower inventories as the end of the year approaches. The downward pressure was exacerbated by expectations of competitive Group II offers emerging from the United States, where suppliers hoped to release the extra inventories held during hurricane season.

With the restart of a key U.S. Group II producer’s operations following a turnaround and no weather-related output disruptions reported, additional barrels were anticipated to enter the supply system. Spot prices for most Group II grades have slipped in Asia, both on an ex-tank Singapore and FOB Asia basis as suppliers were doing their utmost to find a home for their base oils.

Some suppliers were resorting to offering combined cargoes of the light grades with the heavy cuts to reduce inventories of the latter, which have been mounting. However, heavy grade margins over gasoil were still attractive compared to the lighter grades and this could encourage refiners to continue with the same output ratio, perpetuating the problem of mounting inventories.

In China, prices for the heavy grades have slipped as distributors try to stimulate sales and domestic suppliers compete with imports. However, even the lower numbers failed to induce a significant uptick in buying interest as consumers preferred to use up inventories during a time when prices seemed to be on a downward trend, fueling hopes of reduced levels down the road. The ongoing competition between importers and domestic suppliers drove domestic ex-tank prices for the heavy-viscosity cuts down.

In India, import prices for the Group II 500N grade were heard to have inched down by about $5/ton on a CFR India basis week on week on sluggish buying interest and ample supplies. The 70N and 150N were steady as availability was slightly more limited and these grades see heftier demand during the last few weeks of the year.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s Group II supply was not expected to be affected by Group III expansion work at the Haldia refinery but could see reduced availability as the producer will perform maintenance before the start-up of the expanded facilities near the end of the year. The turnaround on the Group II trains was heard to have started this month, but the producer has built inventories to cover contractual requirements during the outage.

Group III
Group III prices were largely stable in the region, although availability of the 6 centiStoke seems to have lengthened in India, and this was exerting downward pressure on import prices.

The restart of the SK-Pertamina Group III plant in Dumai, Indonesia, led to expectations of more plentiful supplies in the region, assuaging concerns of potential shortages if a prolonged shutdown had taken place. The plant was taken off-line for about ten days as a precautionary measure after a fire at the associated refinery on Oct. 1. Supplies to term customers had not been affected, according to company sources.

In China, the Group III situation mirrored that of other countries in the region, with demand slowing down during the last few weeks of the year and domestic supplies growing in importance and reducing the country’s reliance on imported base oils. While South Korean and products of other origins continued to move to China under contract, spot buying interest in imports was thin, particularly as a local supplier has lowered domestic pricing.

In India, Group III prices held largely steady, with the exception of the 6 cSt, which was under pressure because of plentiful supply and slack demand. Spot buying interest was generally weak, while contract negotiations were ongoing. New domestic Group III capacity was anticipated to displace some import volumes.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia in the fourth quarter, which might reduce India’s reliance on Group III imports. The refinery was shut down this month for maintenance on the existing Group II trains.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

Additional details emerged about recent base oil fixtures, with a 2,400-metric ton cargo having been shipped from Singapore to Merak, Indonesia, on the Eagle Lika in late October. About 5,100 tons were lifted from Japan to Hong Kong on the Sun Apollon in late Oct./early Nov. A 4,300-ton cargo was lifted in Daesan, South Korea, to Hong Kong on the Xia Huai in early Nov.

• Among inquiries, a 2,000-metric ton base oils lot was discussed for shipment from Pyeongtaek, South Korea, to Karachi, Pakistan, in November.
• A 4,000-ton cargo was on the table for shipment from Sriracha, Thailand, to Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, in the second half of November.
• A 3,000-ton lot was mentioned for shipment from Ulsan, South Korea, to Sri Lanka and India in Nov.
• A 2,500-ton parcel was quoted for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Huizhou, China, in mid-Nov.
• A 400-ton parcel was mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Nantong, China, in late Nov.
• About 500 tons were expected to be lifted in Onsan for Zhangjiagang, China, in late Nov.
• A 2,100-ton cargo was discussed for lifting in Yokkaichi/Kainan, Japan, to Hong Kong in the last week of Nov.
• About 1,000 tons were likely to be shipped from Onsan to Singapore in mid-Nov.
• Approximately 6,000 to 8,000 tons were discussed for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Singapore between Nov. 25 and Dec. 5.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has eased as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co.) has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants in Japan. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance from October to November.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• Group I supply in Japan has been tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Chennai Petroleum scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand was offline for maintenance in May
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock.
• Indian Oil Corp. was understood to have started a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in early November. The producer was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia at the end of the year.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year, but there was no confirmation whether the plant had been shut down in October.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in April 2026 for approximately 45 days.

The company had cut run rates in March for several weeks due to feedstock limitations, but increased rates in late May.

• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last for several more months.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories.

Group III

• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on Oct. 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and has been restarted. Term supplies were not expected to be affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
• Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia at the end of the year. The plant was heard to be undergoing a one-month turnaround in November.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two or three weeks in early May.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures retreated in early trading on Monday on news that Russian oil shipments had resumed from Novorossiysk following Ukrainian drone attacks that had forced the port operator to suspend activities.

• Brent January 2025 futures were trading at $64.26 per barrel on Nov. 17, up from $63.84/bbl for front-month futures on Nov. 10 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for November 2025 settled at $64.83/bbl on Nov. 14, up from $64.12/bbl for front-month futures on Nov. 7 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were stable-to-soft as some of the heavy grades experienced downward adjustments because of weaker demand against growing supplies.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was steady at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 was down by $10/t at $950/t-$990/t
Bright stock prices were also assessed down by $10/t at $1,340-$1,380/t
Group II 150N was holding at $820/t-$860/t
500N slipped by $10/t to $990/t-$1,030/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was steady at $680/t-$720/t
SN500 slipped by $10/t to $790/t-$830/t
Bright stock prices were also lower by $10/t at $1,180/t-$1,220/t
Group II 150N was stable at $710/t-$750/t, but the 500N was down by $10/t at $820/t-$860/t
Group III grades were steady to soft
4 cSt holding at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt slipping by $10/t to $1,060/t-$1,100/t
8 cSt was hovering at $920/t-$960/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.