While fresh agreements between the U.S. and several countries have slightly eased trade tensions—at least temporarily—most goods moving to the U.S. from overseas will be subject to much higher tariffs than in the past, dampening demand for these products and causing an economic slowdown in many segments, particularly the manufacturing sector. Reuters reported that in October, Chinese exports suffered the worst downturn since February because tariffs shattered U.S. demand, while the effects of front-loading fizzled. China’s factory activity shrank for a seventh month in October, pressured by a drop in new export orders as the boost from months of front-loading to beat U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs finally wore off. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dipped to 49.0 in October from 49.8 in September, a six-month low, the National Bureau of Statistics’ survey showed on Friday, remaining below the 50-mark, indicating contraction. Chinese manufacturers have tried to find takers for their goods in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, but have found themselves selling at a loss with no other markets to absorb all the products the U.S. once purchased, the Reuters article added.

Group I
The light grades in the API Group I segment continued to enjoy a tighter supply and demand ratio and more stable pricing than the heavy grades. Bright stock availability has improved as well, and consumption typically weakens during the colder months, placing downward pressure on prices.

Once again, most Group I spot offers came from producers in Southeast Asia, but there was also some spot availability of Chinese material for second half November shipment. Small flexibag volumes of SN150, SN500 and bright stock of Thai origin have surfaced, with the Group I SN500 heard at $980 per metric ton FCA Thailand and bright stock at $1,360/t FCA Thailand, slightly lower compared to the previous offer levels.

An Indonesian producer has also offered small cargoes of Group I SN130 and bright stock via a tender that closed last week, but whether it was awarded could not be confirmed by the publication deadline. The light grade was expected to attract more interest than the bright stock given the current supply conditions in the region.

China typically imports heavy viscosity base oil grades to make up for a deficit of these cuts, but there has been an uptick in domestic supplies of Group I grades coinciding with softer demand due to the start of the winter season, when the heavy grades see reduced demand levels. A Chinese producer was heard to be offering some of these grades for export at attractive values, but sources said that buying interest for the cargoes was thwarted by logistical complications.

Domestic Group I producers offered bright stock at lower ex-tank prices in China due to growing inventories this week, and this weighed on bright stock import prices as well. Importers were doing their utmost to place cargoes before demand softened further.

India saw a similar situation to bright stock in that it was exposed to downward pressure, along with other high viscosity grades, because of mounting supplies and slowing demand. A domestic producer has reduced its Group I list prices and this was exerting pressure on buyers’ ideas for imports, with CFR India indications for the SN500 and bright stock grades heard to have slipped by approximately $5/t from a week ago.

There has been some interest in Chinese Group I supplies being offered through a tender, but it was heard that transactions were hindered by logistical issues.

Indian refiners were under pressure to use alternative sources of crude oil because of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, which had heretofore been imported into India in large quantities given very competitive prices. In turn, this had allowed Indian refiners to offer attractive base oil prices, but as the feedstock landscape has been altered, the base oil pricing mechanism will likely see some changes as well.

Group II
More plentiful availability of the Group II high-viscosity grades drove spot prices down during the week, while tighter supplies of the light grades offered support to steady pricing. South Korean availabilities were heard to be plentiful, but some buyers preferred to hold off on purchases on expectations of additional U.S. cargoes hitting the market in the coming weeks.

Given the completion of a turnaround at Excel Paralubes’ Group II/Group III base oils plant in Louisiana and the end of the hurricane season along the U.S. Gulf, participants anticipated that more U.S. supplies would be offered for export business, and India is often the receiver of many of these shipments. While U.S. producers had prepared for a fairly active hurricane season, following forecasts calling for several storms, the season was wrapping up with few weather disruptions reported in those areas where base oils plants are located.

In China, Group II imports have come under pressure because of growing supplies and weaker demand. There was ongoing price competition between importers and domestic suppliers and this drove domestic ex-tank prices down as well.

In India, import prices for the Group II 500N grade were heard to have slipped by about $5/ton on a CFR India basis as demand was lacklster against ample supply. On the other hand, the 70N saw a price boost of $5/ton on increased buying interest and dwindling supplies.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s Group II supply was not expected to be affected by Group III expansion work at the Haldia refinery but could see reduced availability as the producer will perform maintenance before the start-up of the expanded facilities near the end of the year. The turnaround on the Group II trains was heard to have started this month, but the producer has built inventories to cover contractual requirements during the outage.

Group III

Group III prices were largely stable in the region, with supply and demand fundamentals described as balanced-to-tight. The 4 cSt in particular seemed to be enjoying healthy buying appetite and this has tightened availability, while the 6 cSt has lengthened.

The SK-Pertamina Group III plant in Dumai, Indonesia, has been restarted, following an unplanned maintenance shutdown that was performed as a precautionary measure after a fire at the associated refinery on Oct. 1. Supplies to term customers have not been affected, according to company sources.

In China, competitive pricing of domestic Group III grades versus imports has allowerd local producers to gain market share and keep some foreign products away, with suppliers looking for fresh opportunities in other regions instead.

In India, Group III prices were also relatively stable as no strong fundamentals pushed prices in a particular direction. Spot activity was muted because most consumers preferred to rely on contract volumes and were not looking for additional spot cargoes. The 4 cSt cut was still described as tighter compared to the other grades and demand from the automotive segment was anticipated to pick up. New domestic Group III capacity was anticipated to displace some import volumes.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia in the fourth quarter, which might reduce India’s reliance on Group III imports. The refinery was shut down this month for maintenance on the existing Group II trains.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

• A 2,000-ton lot was expected to be shipped from Malacca, Malaysia, to West Coast India Nov. 9-11.
• A 4,000-ton cargo of base oils was discussed for shipment from Sriracha, Thailand, to Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, in the second half of November.
• A 2,500-ton parcel was quoted for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Huizhou, China, in mid-November.
• A 400-ton parcel was mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Nantong, China, in late November.
• About 500 tons were expected to be lifted in Onsan for Zhangjiagang, China, in late November.
• A 2,300-ton cargo was on the table for lifting in Onsan and delivery in Taichung, Taiwan, in mid-November.
• A 2,100-ton cargo was discussed for lifting in Yokkaichi/Kainan, Japan, to Hong Kong in mid-Nov to late November.
• About 1,000 tons were likely to be shipped from Onsan to Singapore in mid-November.
• Approximately 6,000 to 8,000 tons were discussed for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Singapore between Nov. 25 and Dec. 5.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has eased as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co.) has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (February–May) plants in Japan. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance from October to November.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• Group I supply in Japan has been tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Chennai Petroleum scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand was offline for maintenance in May
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock.
• IOC was understood to have started a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in early November. The producer was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia at the end of the year.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year, but there was no confirmation whether the plant had been shut down in October.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in April 2026 for approximately 45 days. The company had cut run rates in March for several weeks due to feedstock limitations, but increased rates in late May.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last for several more months.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories.

Group III

• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and has been restarted. Term supplies were not expected to be affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
• Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia at the end of the year. The plant was heard to be undergoing a one-month turnaround in November.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two or three weeks in early May.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures moved up in early trading on Monday on news that the U.S. Congress had made some progress toward ending a federal government shutdown that lasted more than a month. Analysts remained cautious as they expected several industry reports due later in the week amid growing concerns of crude oversupply, although risks of supply disruptions persisted.

• Brent January 2025 futures were trading at $63.84 per barrel on Nov. 10, down from $64.85/bbl for front-month futures on Nov. 3 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for November 2025 settled at $64.12/bbl on Nov. 7, down from $66.01/bbl for front-month futures on Oct. 31(CME).

Base Oils

Spot base oil prices in Asia were stable-to-soft as some of the heavy grades experienced small downward adjustments because of weaker demand against growing supplies.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was steady at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 was down by $10/t at $960/t-$1,000/t
Bright stock prices were holding at $1,350-$1,390/t, despite growing downward pressure.

Group II 150N was holding at $820/t-$860/t
500N was assessed at $1,000/t-$1,040/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was steady at $680/t-$720/t
SN500 was unchanged at $800/t-$840/t
Bright stock prices were hovering at $1,190/t-$1,230/t

Group II 150N was steady at $710/t-$750/t
500N slipped by $10/t to $830/t-$870/t

Group III grades were steady
4 cSt holding at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt at $1,070/t-$1,110/t
8 cSt was hovering at $920/t-$960/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.