Tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump are causing significant economic disruption in Asia, negatively impacting export-reliant economies like Vietnam, and disturbing global supply chains. Countries are facing challenges including slower trade growth, increased costs, and uncertainty, forcing some to seek individual trade deals or face the risk of political instability. The trade dispute between the U.S. and China, in particular, seemed to deepen last week, with president Trump threatening to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports as of Nov. 1. While the levies might not impact base oils directly, as the U.S. does not routinely import base stocks from China, they do affect imported raw materials and other inputs used by U.S. lubricant and finished products manufacturers, with some of these producers curtailing purchases or changing supply sources due to the steeper import costs.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell to multi-month lows and continued to be weighed down by ample global supplies and pessimistic forecasts about demand levels over the next several months.

Group I
Most Group I supply seemed to be fairly balanced against demand, but the heavy-viscosity grades have started to lengthen on seasonal patterns and ample output. Even bright stock, which has seen robust demand and climbing prices for most of the year, has started to lose its sheen.

Many blenders in Asia have turned to using more Group II in their lubricant formulations whenever they have the ability to take advantage of competitive prices of the premium grades and meet fuel efficiency and emission targets in automotive applications. However, there was still significant demand for Group I grades in the region, with particular interest focused on the light grades.

Group I production in Asia is mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia and most spot offers emerged this week from producers in Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia. Japan also houses several Group I plants, but most production is for domestic consumption and contract business and is not exported to the same degree as Southeast Asian products. Japanese refiner ENEOS permanently shut down two base oil plants in 2022 and 2023, but still operates several units, which mainly supply the domestic market.

In Indonesia, SK-Pertamina was understood to have shut down its Group III plant in Dumai, Indonesia, for maintenance following a fire at the refinery in late August, but Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap was heard to be running well.

Pertamina recently offered a few flexibag cargoes via tenders involving Group I SN130 and bright stock, on an ex-works Jakarta basis. The most recent tender was heard to have been concluded at similar price levels to those seen in September, with the the SN130 sold near $750 per metric ton ex-works Jakarta and the bright stock at around $1,350/t ex-works.

Thai Lube offered small volumes of SN150, SN500 and bright stock as well, with the bright stock required to be co-loaded with the SN500. There had been buying interest in these cargoes, but it was heard that buyers had adjusted their bids down because they expected a softening of market conditions.

In China, activity was somewhat disappointing following the National Day holidays (or Golden Week) celebrated in early October, as participants had hoped for renewed buying interest which did not seem to materialize. Tariff-related tensions and domestic economic uncertainties were partly seen as factors dampening demand from many key sectors such as manufacturing. Vehicle electrification was also seen as a culprit for the lower base oil demand, although base oils are still used in many applications in electric engines.

Group I domestic prices have edged down as suppliers tried to entice buyers, while importers and distributors have also revised their prices down to find a home for their cargoes during a time when demand tends to slow down.

In India, activity in the base oils and lubricants industry was subdued because of the Diwali or Deepawali holidays that started on October 18. Ahead of the celebrations, import prices for the lighter grade had been steady given tighter availability, but the heavy grades and bright stock had seen downward adjustments. Domestic pricing of the heavy grades had also been adjusted down by a local producer, with the exception of bright stock which had seen an uptick like the light-viscosity grades.

A number of buyers had begun to build inventories ahead of a planned turnaround at a Middle East facility starting in November, with a couple of U.S. cargoes heard to have been secured. Availability from Europe was more limited than previously anticipated because of steady demand in that region.

The planned one-month turnaround at Chennai Petroleum’s Group I plant in Chennai that was expected to take place this month was likely to tighten domestic supplies as well, although stocks appeared to be sufficient to meet contract requirements. No further details about the turnaround were forthcoming.

Group II
Within the Group II segment, the light grades were able to maintain a steady course on more limited supplies and ongoing demand, while prices for the heavy grades were weighed down by more ample supplies and weaker demand. South Korean cargoes were expected to move to India, China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East in October, and November discussions were somewhat muted because of holidays in India and sluggish demand in China.

There were reports that the sole Taiwanese Group II producer has granted discounts for term shipments in November, with cargoes moving to China, India and the United Arab Emirates.

In China, contract shipments were anticipated to meet most requirements, with buyers showing subdued interest in spot cargoes. Domestic supplies were also considered plentiful and they competed with foreign material.

A Shandong producer has planned a 45-day turnaround this month and has not been actively offering cargoes.

In India, buyers appeared to be able to make do with domestic supplies and import cargoes secured before the Diwali holidays. Indian buyers also count on competitive offers to emerge from the U.S. in the coming weeks as suppliers release the emergency inventories kept during hurricane season. However, U.S. producers have been monitoring market conditions this month as the Excel Paralubes plant in Louisiana was undergoing a turnaround and it was not clear whether the outage would tighten Group II availabilities.

Prices for imported Group II light grades had inched up in India before the holiday, while the 500N underwent downward adjustments because of lackluster demand.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s Group II supply was not expected to be affected by Group III expansion work at the Haldia refinery but could see reduced availability as the producer plans to perform maintenance before the start-up of the expanded facilities near the end of the year. It could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.

Group III
Group III prices were largely stable, receiving support from fairly balanced supply and demand, although the 8 cSt grade has started to lengthen and this applied downward pressure to pricing. South Korean as well as Middle Eastern base oils were widely available to meet supply needs in the region.

SK-Pertamina was heard to have shut down its plant in Dumai, Indonesia, for unplanned maintenance following a fire at the associated refinery on October 1, although the base oil unit had not been directly affected by the fire. The shutdown was expected to last one month, but sources did not anticipate supplies to term customers to be curtailed, although the outage may reduce spot availability in the region.

In China, domestic production was steady and suppliers were doing their best to protect or gain market share and keep imports away. They seemed to have been successful in reducing the inflows of Middle Eastern product, but South Korean contract volumes continued to be imported on a regular basis, according to sources.

In India, lubricant demand for automotive and motorcycle applications had displayed improved levels ahead of the Diwali festival in late October and following the government’s reduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in late September, which seemed to have encouraged car and motorcycle sales. However, the religious holidays have dampened activity in most segments, with prices showing few fluctuations.

Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia in the fourth quarter, but it could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.

While most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

• A 10,000-metric ton lot was expected to be shipped from Singapore to the U.S. Gulf the first week of November. It was not clear whether this was an intra-company shipment.
• Approximately 4,000-5,000 metric tons were quoted for shipment from Sriracha, Thailand, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, on Oct. 10-20.
• A second lot of about 6,000-8,000 tons was expected to cover Daesan, South Korea, and/or Mailiao, Taiwan, to Hamriyah, with loading dates between Oct. 20-30.
• A 1,000-ton parcel was expected to ship from Onsan, South Korea, to Zhangjiagang, China, on Oct. 20.
• A 1,500-ton cargo was mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Singapore at the end of Oct.

Production
The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co.) scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, II and III base oils. The plant was expanded in 2017. 
• Chennai Petroleum scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September or October for a month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year, but there was no confirmation whether the plant had been shut down this month.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove and houses a Group III base oils plant. The Dumai base oil plant was shut down for a one-month maintenance after the fire, but supplies were not expected to be affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia.
• Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in the fourth quarter, but it could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two-three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures slipped in early Asian trading on Monday on deepening supply concerns and escalating U.S-China trade tensions as analysts worried reduced economic activity in the world’s two largest economies would dampen oil demand.

The International Energy Agency also raised its forecast for global oil supply growth and warned of a supply surplus in 2026, particularly as OPEC+ members seemed set on increasing output.

• Brent December 2025 futures were trading at $61.10 per barrel on October 20, down from $63.57/bbl for front-month futures on October 13 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for November 2025 settled at $61.34/bbl on Oct. 17, down from $62.09/bbl for front-month futures on Oct. 10 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were largely stable as participants reassessed product needs and suppliers tried to maintain offer levels, while activity in key markets was subdued.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was assessed at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 was hovering at $980/t-$1,020/t
Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,370/t-$1,410/t

Group II 150N was holding at $820/t-$860/t
500N was assessed at $1,020/t-$1,060/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was steady at $680/t-$720/t
SN500 was holding at $810/t-$850/t
Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,210/t-$1,250/t

Group II 150N was gauged at $710/t-$750/t
500N was heard at $850/t-$890/t

Group III grades were steady:
4 cSt hovering at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt at $1,070/t-$1,110/t
8 cSt at $930/t-$970/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.