Group I
Group I prices have by and large eluded the downward price pressure that other segments have witnessed since earlier in the year, but given a slowdown in trading and industrial activity in several Asian nations, demand for Group I cuts has started to suffer. Buyers were delaying purchases for as long as possible on expectations of continued downward pressure on prices given additional spot base oil availabilities emerging from the U.S. and Europe.

Bright stock had so far been the most coveted grade within this segment as demand from manufacturing, agricultural and grease applications had been robust, but it has also succumbed to the burden of slowing industrial, agricultural and heavy-duty activities. Furthermore, the heavy grades typically see weaker consumption during the winter in the Northern Hemisphere as machinery and vehicles require lighter formulations to function properly in cold temperatures.

A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out Oct. 1 but was quickly extinguished, according to local media reports. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove and houses a Group III base oils plant. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia.

Company sources indicated that the fire was not expected to impact base oil supply. Last week, Pertamina was heard to have issued a Group I sales tender that was scheduled to close Oct. 6 for 20–200 metric tons of Group I SN130 and 20–1,000 tons of bright stock in flexibags/isotanks, on an ex-works Jakarta basis, but it could not be confirmed whether the tender had been awarded or revised.

Southeast Asia continues to be the main source of Group I base oils in Asia, and several cargoes have been recently made available by a Thai producer as well. Last week, Thai Lube offered small volumes of SN150 at $1,100 per ton FCA Thailand, SN500 at $980/t FCA and bright stock at $1,390/t FCA. The bright stock was required to be co-loaded with the SN500. Offer levels were steady from the previous week and expired Oct. 1 for October loading dates.

In China, trading activity was almost at a standstill due to the National Day holidays, or Golden Week, celebrated Oct. 1–8. As in some other parts of Asia, demand for the higher-viscosity grades such as bright stock had also started to slide as consumers began to stock the lighter grades for cold-weather lubricant formulations. There was also less anxiety surrounding bright stock purchases as this grade appeared slightly more available, and additional cargoes were slated for arrival later in the month. Fresh business was anticipated to be concluded once players returned from the weeklong holidays, although participants may face an increasingly weaker economy.

In India, most base oil prices were reported as stable, although the lighter grade SN150 has begun to show tighter conditions, and the price of imports was heard to have inched up by $5/t on a CFR India basis as a result. Buying interest for base oils has seen an uptick at the end of the monsoon season, which traditionally occurs at the end of September, although weather patterns have changed, and this date is not written in stone, with heavy rains affecting some areas for longer.

Demand for Group I SN500 has been more subdued, and import offers have therefore come under pressure. However, given an expected turnaround at a Middle East facility starting in November, some buyers preferred to start padding inventories ahead of the shutdown and have taken advantage of offers from various sources such as the U.S. and Europe instead of postponing purchases.

The planned one-month turnaround at Chennai Petroleum’s Group I plant in Chennai that was slated to take place this month was expected to tighten domestic supplies as well, although term volumes appeared to be sufficient to meet requirements.

Group II
Group II prices were reported as generally steady, although domestic prices in some countries such as Taiwan have been adjusted down for October business. Most producers have achieved a comfortable supply position for October as they have been able to place their cargoes in the previous weeks. A South Korean supplier was heard to have found takers in the Middle East for substantial volumes of its Group II grades.

In China, as mentioned above, business has almost ground to a halt because of the National Day holidays, or Golden Week, when large parts of the population travel to their hometowns or various tourist destinations. China’s Ministry of Transport estimated that during National Day week there will be as many as 2.36 billion passenger journeys across the country, averaging around 295 million trips per day, or a 3.2% increase compared to last year, according to The Nation Thailand, with many tourists traveling abroad. The increased travel and transportation needs had boosted lubricant demand ahead of the holiday.

Domestic base oil prices in China had been adjusted down in the weeks leading to the holiday because of plentiful availability and the effort by some suppliers to lower inventories ahead of the recess. One exception may be a Shandong producer whose plant will start a 45-day turnaround this month and was therefore less under pressure to sell.

In India, Group II prices have shown little fluctuation since last week as most October shipments have been concluded, and buyers were waiting for more signs about the November price trajectory. The last quarter of the year is when many suppliers, both domestic and foreign, lower their inventories to avoid ending the year with elevated stocks on their books. This is particularly the case for U.S. producers who typically place significant volumes into the Indian market at the end of the hurricane season as demand in the South Asian nation shows an uptick ahead of the festive period starting in late October. Demand in India remains fairly healthy until the end of the year, particularly as many importers like to stock up on competitively priced imports.

Group III
Group III base oils received support from a tighter supply and demand scenario, with the light grade heard to be snug compared to the other Group III cuts. A South Korean refiner who had offered very limited availability in the previous weeks was said to have achieved a more comfortable supply position.

In China, regular South Korean Group III shipments were expected to continue to meet contract requirements, while domestic producers will likely do their utmost to compete with imports and protect or gain market share upon participants’ return from the weeklong holiday period.

In India, there were few changes reported from the previous week in the Group III segment. Lubricant demand from OEMs was picking up the pace due to increased passenger car and motorcycle purchases expected ahead of the Diwali festival in late October and following the government’s reduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in late September. The lower taxes were seen as an effort to encourage domestic spending and counter the effects of reduced exports given the hefty tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed on Indian goods.

Domestic base oil capacity was expected to grow following national oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia, scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter, although there was no confirmation whether the startup was on schedule.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

Approximately 4,000 to 5,000 metric tons were quoted for shipment from Sriracha, Thailand, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, on Oct. 10–20.
A second lot of about 6,000 to 8,000 tons was expected to cover Daesan, South Korea, and/or Mailiao, Taiwan, to Hamriyah, with loading dates between Oct. 20–30.
A 4,000-ton cargo was mentioned for shipment from Ulsan, South Korea, to the Red Sea in mid-October.
A 5,000-ton cargo was on the table for shipment from Agio Theodori, Greece, to West Coast India and the UAE in the second half of October.
A 1,000-ton parcel was expected to ship from Onsan to Zhangjiagang, China, on Oct. 20.
A 2,000-ton cargo was on the table for shipment from Onsan to Taichung, Taiwan, also on Oct. 20.
A 1,500-ton lot was discussed for shipment from Onsan to Singapore on Oct. 20 as well.
Approximately 17,000 to 30,000 tons will likely be shipped from Yeosu, South Korea, to West Coast India the first week of October.
There was also an inquiry to move 3,000 tons from Yeosu to Mailiao, Taiwan, on Oct. 15–19.
A 1,200-ton lot was expected to be shipped from Onsan to Merak, Indonesia, in November.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I
Luberef has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I and Group II base oils.
Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September or October for approximately one month.
Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to the second half of August.
PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by the end of August.
CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 tons per year.
IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July or early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (February–May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April or early May following a partial shutdown.
CPCL had one week of maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February or early March.

Group II
ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year.
Formosa Petrochemical postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last through August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S., plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, from late February to May, which limited spot supply.
Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations, increasing rates in late May.
An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s second-quarter availability.
Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in the second quarter for maintenance and catalyst change.
Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III
SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two to three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
Bapco began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China starting in mid-June.
Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures slipped on Monday on news that OPEC+ planned to boost crude oil output again in November. Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other countries held an online meeting on Sunday and later announced they expected to lift crude production by 137,000 barrels per day next month – the same amount as in October.

Brent November 2025 futures were trading at $65.58 per barrel on Oct 6, down from $69.17/bbl on Sept. 29 (ICE Futures Europe).
Dubai crude futures (Platts) for November 2025 settled at $64.11/bbl on Oct. 3, down from $70.37/bbl for front-month futures on Sept. 26 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices were steady to soft, with values for some grades inching down on growing supply and weaker demand.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was assessed at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 fell by $10/t to $990/t-$1,030/t
Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,370-$1,410/t
Group II 150N was adjusted down by $10/t to $820/t-$860/t
500N was holding at $1,030/t-$1,070/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was holding at $670/t-$710/t
SN500 was unchanged at $820/t-$860/t
Bright stock prices edged down by $10/t to $1,210/t-$1,250/t
Group II 150N was steady at $710/t-$750/t
500N was holding at $860/t-$900/t
Group III grades were steady, with the 4 cSt hovering at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt at $1,070/t-$1,110/t
8 cSt was hovering at $940/t-$980/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.