Part of the market attention was focused on the potential impact of the 50% tariff threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump on Indian exports, with Indian businesses likely to feel the impact of the levy after it takes effect on Wednesday, media sources reported. The deterioration in bilateral relations between the U.S. and India was also expected to affect Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stance as he prepares for the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit with China and other leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin over the coming weekend.

Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung was scheduled to hold his first summit with Trump on Monday, with the two leaders expected to finalize the details of the agreement reached in late July that would lower “reciprocal” tariffs to 15%. South Korea is a top exporter of automobiles to the U.S. along with Japan and Mexico, and steep tariffs could deal a major blow to manufacturers. The automotive segment is one of the top consumers of finished lubricants and greases in Asia, although other segments such as power generation and industrial applications are experiencing significant growth.

Group I

Regional availability of the API Group I heavy viscosity grades has started to ease, which resulted in slightly lower spot pricing. With equivalent Group II grades also being offered at attractive values, some buyers were opting for purchasing Group II heavy grades whenever applications allowed substitution.

One exception may be Group I bright stock, as this grade is difficult to replace, although its reign as the most expensive Group I grade may be upended by the startup of the ExxonMobil Singapore Resid Upgrade project, which will bring an extra-heavy Group II cut to the market with similar characteristics as bright stock.

Most of the Group I production in Asia is concentrated in Southeast Asia and Japan, where a number of plants had been under maintenance programs in the previous months. However, a Thai refiner has restarted production following a planned shutdown, and this was expected to bring additional product to the market. The producer has already been able to offer some bulk availability of Group I SN500 and bright stock to Asian buyers. Offers of Thai flexibag volumes were reported to have slipped from the previous week as the cargoes had attracted limited interest at the steeper levels.

In related news, Thailand’s crude oil imports fell sharply in July amid unplanned refinery outages and a border conflict with Cambodia.

A Chinese refiner also offered various Group I cargoes through a tender last week for September shipment, eliciting buying interest from India.

An Indonesian producer was heard to be prioritizing domestic requirements and has restricted its spot availability, while a Japanese producer was expected to have restarted its Group I plant and to resume exports in September or October.

For the moment, bright stock spot supply remained relatively tight in the region as demand was healthy and there were few producers able to offer spot availability. However, buyers have started to resist higher offer levels and prices have softened as a result.

In China, imported bright stock volumes had declined in the previous months as importers preferred to avoid the risk of securing pricey cargoes that needed to remain competitive against local product. Additionally, a turnaround at a Thai plant had curbed spot supplies moving to China in the previous two months, which also led to increased prices for imports.

However, with the Thai producer having resumed production and additional domestic bright stock cargoes expected to be offered for spot business in the coming weeks, prices were exposed to downward pressure. According to reports, small decreases were observed in imported bright stock indications week to week.

In India, Group I spot prices for imports have seen small downward adjustments as availability was deemed more than adequate and buyers were hesitant to secure additional cargoes until the monsoon season was over and there were no disruptions to industrial and transportation activities.

Growing availability of Iranian material was exerting downward pressure on spot indications, despite the fact that Indian buyers were trying to steer away from this product because of international sanctions.

There was also availability of various Chinese Group I grades for September shipment offered through a tender, eliciting interest from Indian buyers, but it could not be ascertained whether there were any takers.

Group II

Improved supply levels for the heavy-grade Group II base oils exerted downward pressure on prices, while the light grades were generally stable. Increased supplies would not be a problem per se, but this combined with weakening demand because of seasonal patterns amid plentiful consumer stocks was driving suppliers to lower numbers to entice buyers. At the same time, buyers’ price expectations were adjusted down given that they felt there were plenty of supply options.

The completion of plant turnarounds in recent weeks and the lack of events that might disrupt production resulted in oversupply conditions, particularly of the heavy grades as refiners prioritized these cuts because of higher margins, and this situation was not expected to change much until there is a pickup in demand, which typically occurs ahead of the year-end holidays.

Supply of South Korean Group II 500N was ample, while the light grades were slightly less available, and this allowed these cuts to maintain steady prices. There continued to be ongoing buying interest for flexibag cargoes as buyers seemed more comfortable committing to smaller quantities.

In China, availability of Group II heavy grades has started to lengthen, despite the fact that these base oils were somewhat tighter in the previous weeks. This seemed to be the case for most grades as demand has turned lackluster, allowing for more volumes to be offered for spot business, although buying interest for imports was still evident.

Local plants that had been shut down for an extended period because of market economics were heard to be running again. Several Group II plants were built in recent years in China, resulting in a somewhat oversupplied domestic market. State-run units in particular are sometimes shut down to avoid a large product overhang.

In India, Group II prices were assessed as steady to soft, with most buyers able to cover requirements through term volumes and lower crude oil and feedstock values over the last few weeks also keeping a ceiling on base oil price ideas.

Domestic supplies of the light grades were tighter because local refiners continued to favor output of the heavy grades due to higher margins. Despite the fact that domestic Group II production has increased in India over the last few years, it was still not sufficient to meet the growing demand. With plants running well in Asia, there were also additional South Korean cargoes being offered into India, particularly of the heavy grades.

Many Indian consumers look forward to the last quarter of the year when additional U.S. cargoes are offered up as U.S. suppliers release the extra emergency barrels that have been kept during the hurricane season along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season brought heavy rains to Puerto Rico and the Bahamas last week but largely missed the U.S. East Coast. There were reports of some U.S.-origin Group II light grades having been offered into India, with bids apparently falling short of the expected levels.

Group III

While Group III supplies were deemed largely balanced against demand in Asia, there were expectations that additional Middle East cargoes would be coming into the market in September. Case in point was a spot cargo originating in Abu Dhabi that was heard to have been offered for September loading, while there were also expectations of increased supplies emerging from Bahrain next month as Bapco completed a maintenance program at its plant in late July. The producer was building inventories this month but has yet to offer spot cargoes, according to sources.

In China, Group III prices were reported as softer because of competition between local producers and foreign refiners as both try to protect or gain market share. Increased availability of South Korean material following the completion of a plant turnaround in late June added to the pressure on import pricing.

In India, Group III prices were stable, although the 4 cSt grade inched down by a few dollars per metric ton on a CFR India basis, and Group III availability was largely balanced against demand. A refiner in the United Arab Emirates was heard to have offered spot quantities to India for September lifting. The 4 cSt and 8 cSt grades were described as slightly more plentiful than the 6 cSt grade and this exerted downward pressure on prices.

Shipping

A 1,400 -1,500-ton cargo was discussed for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Taichung, Taiwan, the first week of September.
A 1,000-ton lot was mentioned for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Huizhou, China, in the second half of September.
About 1,300 tons were mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Bangkok, Thailand, at the end of September.
About 1,000 tons were also mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Indonesia the first week of September.
Between 8,000 tons and 10,000 tons were quoted for shipment from Ulsan, South Korea, or Mailao, Taiwan, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, at the end of September.
Approximately 4,000 to 6,000 tons were on the table for loading in Jeddah or Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, to Singapore in late September.
About 2,000 tons were being considered for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Vietnam in October.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance is likely to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although ongoing shutdowns or reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years, may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have affected base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was anticipated to be shut for 45 days from mid-July to the second half of August.
• Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I base oils plant in Chennai, India, starting in September.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance is scheduled by the end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 tons per year.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations with limited spot availability for export.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July or early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May to June) and Mizushima B (February to May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April or early May following a partial shutdown.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February or early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that may last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S., plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, from late February to May, with limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March because of feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s second-quarter availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in the second quarter for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, United Arab Emirates, for two to three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• Bapco reportedly began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude

Crude oil futures ticked up on Monday as recent drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure heightened supply concerns. Guarded optimism about a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut and potential economic growth also supported prices.

Brent October 2025 futures were trading at $67.94 per barrel on Aug. 25, up from $65.97/bbl on Aug. 18 (ICE Futures Europe).
Dubai crude futures (Platts) for September 2025 settled at $69.04/bbl on Aug. 22, up from $66.39 for front-month futures on Aug. 15 (CME).

Base Oils

Spot base oil prices were steady to soft, with values for some grades slipping on growing supply. Price ranges below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was hovering at $810/t-$850/t
SN500 was adjusted down by $10 per ton $1,050/t-$1,090/t (to reflect current discussion levels)
Bright stock was stable at $1,390/t-$1,430/t

Group II 150N held at $850/t-$890/t
500N slipped by $10/t to $1,060/t-$1,100/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was holding at $690/t-$730/t
SN500 was assessed down by $10/t at $880/t-$920/t
Bright stock inched down by $10/t to $1,260/t-$1,300/t

Group II 150N was steady at $710/t-$750/t
500N was down by $10/t at $880/t-$920/t

Group III grades were steady to soft.
4 cSt slipping by $10/t to $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt steady at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
8 cSt was adjusted down by $10/t to $950/t-$990/t (to reflect current discussion levels)

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.