Weekly Asia Base Oil Price Report

Steep 50% tariffs imposed on Indian goods caused a falling-out between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and pushed the South Asian country to seek closer ties with China. Modi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a regional security summit in China a week ago. U.S. tariffs and other internal problems also caused economic activity in China to decelerate, with manufacturing operations in particular showing a slowdown, which impacted demand for industrial and heavy-duty lubricants.

Given expectations of decreased export activity to the U.S., the Indian government hoped to encourage domestic spending by lowering the national consumption tax as of Sept. 22.

Group I
SN500 was increasingly exposed to downward pressure because of growing supplies, not only of this grade, but also of Group II heavy grades, which consumers preferred to use in some formulations when prices were competitive. On the other hand, FOB Asia prices for the light-viscosity SN150 and bright stock saw adjustments the previous week, but steadied this week.

The growing supply in the region was the result of plants coming back on stream following plant turnarounds. Over the past several weeks, there were offers of both bulk and flexibag volumes from Thai Lube, which completed a turnaround in August. The latest offer was understood to have involved bulk cargoes of SN500 and bright stock, with the producer apparently required these two grades to be co-loaded, for shipment in the second half of September.

The Indonesian producer was also heard to have run its plant at high rates, but spot volumes from the supplier were not available for export, as it prioritized domestic requirements, according to sources.

Bright stock was still fairly tight, but expectations of increased supplies reaching the region placed downward pressure on prices. The start-up of the ExxonMobil Singapore Resid Upgrade project last month, which brought an extra-heavy Group II cut to the market with similar characteristics as bright stock, was also expected to add to the pressure.

In China, Group I availability was deemed adequate to long to cover most requirements, while some Group II cuts filled the supply gaps, particularly as China was still structurally short of the heavy-viscosity grades. Chinese domestic suppliers hiked offers of bright stock due to the tight availability. The turnarounds at the Thai plant curtailed spot supplies moving to China in the previous months, but since the plants restarted, additional supply options became available.

A Chinese Group I producer was heard to have offered some Group I volumes for export late last month – a sign of plentiful supplies in China as the country does not typically export Group I base oils. The cargoes were heard to have moved to the Middle East. Additional Group I cargoes were offered for export via a tender by the supplier this week as Chinese demand remained lackluster.

In India, some buyers started to make inquiries as they needed to replenish stocks, which were drawn down during the monsoon season, when logistics and transportation saw disruptions. Demand from some sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing was still somewhat subdued, but was anticipated to pick up during the next few weeks, particularly as the heavy rains were anticipated to have been beneficial for agricultural activities. The heavy-viscosity Group I grade was under pressure because of competition with Group II 500N, which was offered at attractive prices due to lengthening regional supplies. Interest in bright stock was still keen because of tight availability within the Indian market.

There were reports that Saudi Arabian material was still fairly limited for trade into India, while products from Iran were largely avoided due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil products and the vessels carrying them.

Small volumes of Group I grades were heard to have become available from the U.S., as plants resumed full production, but the gap between bids and offers was difficult to close.

Group II
Following a spate of turnarounds and isolated production hiccups, additional Group II supplies started to come to market over the last several weeks, placing downward pressure on prices. This was mostly evident on the heavy viscosity grades, which were more abundant because refiners prioritized production of these cuts due to higher margins. The start-up of the ExxonMobil Group II plant expansion in Singapore was also anticipated to exacerbate a lengthening of supplies in the fourth quarter.

Buying appetite for large cargoes was muted as buyers preferred to commit to flexibag volumes so as to avoid risks associated with the possibility that prices could slip in the coming weeks. Suppliers seemed intent on keeping prices steady for October loading cargoes, which led to subdued buying activity.

Discussions for 150N cargoes ex-Singapore centered on price ideas near $855-$860 per metric ton ex-tank. A couple of heavy-viscosity Group II cargoes also originating in Singapore were reported done at $1,080/t ex-tank Singapore for September shipment.

There were reports of Chinese spot supply being offered into the region, but it could not be ascertained whether the cargoes were snapped up. China built additional Group II capacity over the past 10 years and availability tipped towards oversupply when demand slowed down, which appeared to be the case currently. As a result, some cargoes were sometimes offered for export.

An uptick in domestic interest for Group II grades in China led to increased domestic prices, which were supported by a scarcity of light-grade base oil imports. However, there were expectations of additional import cargoes arriving in China later in the month.

Expectations of improved demand in India, following lackluster conditions during the monsoon season, encouraged South Korean and U.S. suppliers to keep offers at firm levels. There were also expectations of increased availability from Taiwan, where the sole Group II producer was heard to have adjusted domestic prices down for 500N.

Increased supply levels at Indian domestic plants given expansions coming on stream in the last quarter of the year were expected to place some downward pressure on pricing as well.

U.S. producers started to offer Group II light-grade cargoes into India to release the extra stocks held during the hurricane season, with discussions heard ongoing. In years past, these negotiations yielded competitive pricing, especially when Asian supplies increased, adding pressure for suppliers to lower offers.

Group III
The Group III segment was generally viewed as balanced, supporting steady prices. Group III prices were reported within the published ranges, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Volumes of 4 cSt and 8 cSt grades from a South Korean producer were heard curtailed due to reduced production levels, keeping prices from this supplier fairly steady.

Bapco completed a maintenance program at its plant in late July, prompting expectations of increased supplies emerging from Bahrain this month, but the producer focused on term commitments and had little to no product for spot shipments, according to sources, who added that some of Bapco’s customers inquired about spot availability from other suppliers. This could not be confirmed with the producer directly.

Adnoc completed a turnaround earlier in the year, but was also heard to have offered limited spot volumes.

Spot availability from Malaysia was understood lower this week because the producer had to address a sudden uptick in term requirements, according to sources.

In China, buyers relied heavily on Group III base oils from local producers who offered competitive pricing compared to imports. Aside from regular term volumes, there were few requirements for foreign products.

In India, buying interest in Group III grades was steady, but not particularly robust as demand for premium base oils from the automotive segment, which is one of the largest consumers of Group III base oils, was still developing. National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s expansion of the Group III plant in Haldia scheduled for the fourth quarter was anticipated to place downward pressure on pricing. Additional Group II and Group III expansions were in the pipeline in India over the next few years and aimed at meeting a projected 50% increase in India’s finished lubricant demand by 2030.

Shipping
5,000-ton cargo was discussed for shipment from Rotterdam, The Netherlands, to Mumbai, India, the second half of September.
10,000 tons were mentioned for shipment from South Korea and/or Taiwan to Pakistan in late September.
1,000 tons were on the table for lifting from Onsan, South Korea, to Jingjiang, China, on Sept. 20-22.
500-ton lot was mentioned for loading in Onsan to Zhangjiagang, China, on Sept. 20-22 as well.
2,000-ton cargo was anticipated to load in Mailiao, Taiwan, to Port Klang, Malaysia, at the end of September.
2, 250-ton lot was mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Singapore in mid-September.
700 tons were being considered for shipment from Onsan to Vietnam in October.
Second cargo of 4,500 tons was on the table for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Vietnam in early October.

Production
The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I base oils plant in Chennai, India, starting in September.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to mid September from earlier in the month.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that may last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two-three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures rose slightly on Monday as traders largely shrugged off an underwhelming OPEC+ production increase and the potential of additional sanctions on Russian oil exports. OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced on Sunday that the group plans to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day. Analysts’ expectations of reduced oil demand as the U.S. economy has started to show signs of slowing down weighed on prices.

Brent November 2025 futures were trading at $66.80 per barrel on September 8, down from $68.12/bbl on Sept. 1 (ICE Futures Europe).
Dubai crude futures (Platts) for October 2025 settled at $65.84/bbl on Sept. 5, down from $69.71/bbl for front-month futures on Aug. 29 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices were steady to soft, with values for some grades slipping on growing supply and weaker demand.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was assessed lower by $10/t at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 was slightly down at the high end of the range at $1,040/t-$1,070/t, reflecting a $10/t decrease
Bright stock prices moved down by $10/t to $1,380-$1,420/t
Group II 150N was steady at $840/t-$880/t
500N edged down by $10/t to $1,050/t-$1,090/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was holding at $670/t-$710/t
SN500 was assessed down by $10/t at $860/t-$900/t
Bright stock was unchanged at $1,250/t-$1,290/t
Group II 150N was steady at $710/t-$750/t
500N was also holding at $880/t-$920/t
Group III grades were stable to soft:
4 cSt heard at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt moving down by $10/t to $1,080/t-$1,120/t
8 cSt was hovering at $950/t-$990/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.