U.S. president Donald Trump, on his part, announced that he would be imposing fresh 100% tariffs on Chinese imports as of November 1 in response to China’s new controls on rare earth metals and related products. China accused Washington of ramping up technological restrictions on China in the name of national security. According to experts, should Mr. Trump’s additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods take effect, they could hurt the Chinese economy further. However, president Trump downplayed the strained relations in an Oct. 12 post on his social media platform, Truth Social, days after announcing the tariffs, and was expected to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the growing possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could bring peace to the region and hopefully, discourage Houthis from attacking vessels in the Red Sea. This would simplify shipping routes as ships would be able to transit through the Suez Canal instead of going around the tip of South Africa, which has lengthened voyages and driven up freight rates.

In crude oil news, the outlook for oil prices remained bearish on expectations of increased supply as OPEC+ members planned to raise output in November, with values falling to five-month lows on Friday. However, futures edged up on Monday given signs that the tensions between the U.S. and China had started to ease.

Group I
While balanced supply and demand fundamentals largely supported API Group I prices, falling crude oil values have started to exert pressure on indications. Buyers appeared reluctant to pay for current offer levels when feedstock prices were moving down, and consumption of the heavy grades has also declined on seasonal patterns, adding to the pressure. Muted demand for the heavy grades has resulted in mounting supplies and falling spot indications not only in Asia, but in other regions as well.

Bright stock was still sought-after, but demand generally weakens in the last quarter when cold winter temperatures require blenders to switch to lighter cuts in their oil formulations. Despite more subdued consumption levels, bright stock prices were largely stable on limited supplies.

Most Group I offers emerged once again from Southeast Asian producers. While many blenders in Asia have started to use more Group II in their lubricant manufacturing operations, often prompted by competitive prices of the premium grades, there was still substantial demand for Group I grades in the region, with particular interest focused on the light grades.

Last week, Indonesian producer Pertamina was heard to have issued a Group I sales tender that closed on October 6 for Group I SN130 and bright stock in flexibags, on an ex-works Jakarta basis. The tender was heard to have fetched similar price levels to those discussed for a tender closing on September 15. At that time, the producer had reportedly sold the SN130 near $750 per metric ton ex-works Jakarta and the bright stock at around $1,350/t ex-works.

Thai Lube had also offered small volumes of SN150, SN500 and bright stock the previous week, with the bright stock required to be co-loaded with the SN500. There was no confirmation whether the cargoes had been sold, but it was heard that buyers have started to adjust their price expectations down as supplies appeared to be growing more plentiful.

In China, activity was expected to pick up this week following the National Day holidays (or Golden Week) celebrated October 1-8. There had been an uptick in lubricant consumption ahead of the holidays from the transportation segment as millions of people travel during the week-long holidays. But demand in general has been dampened by economic uncertainties and reduced manufacturing output, particularly after the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods moving to the U.S., which led to lower demand for Chinese exports.

Several bright stock cargoes were slated to arrive in China over the next few weeks, assuaging anxiety about potential product shortages. China has increased its Group II capacity over the last ten years, but Group I production has shrunk, and domestic supplies of the heavy-viscosity grades are not deemed sufficient to meet demand. Nevertheless, Group I prices remained exposed to downward pressure as domestic suppliers tried to compete with imports, while importers and distributors adjusted their prices down in order to place product ahead of a further slowdown in demand as the year-end approaches.

In India, import prices for the lighter grade were steady given tighter availability, while indications for the heavy grades and bright stock edged down. This trend was also reflected in domestic pricing as a local producer increased its light grade and bright stock offers, but lowered its heavy grades. Base oil purchases had shown an uptick earlier this month because the monsoon season has come to an end and buyers were boosting inventories ahead of the Diwali festival starting on Oct. 18, but the approach of the festive week dampened trading.

Given a planned turnaround at a Middle East facility starting in November, some buyers had also begun to build inventories ahead of the shutdown and have taken advantage of offers from sources such as the U.S. and Europe, although European availability has contracted because of better-than-expected demand in that region.

The planned one-month turnaround at Chennai Petroleum’s Group I plant in Chennai that was expected to take place this month was likely to tighten domestic supplies as well, although stocks appeared to be sufficient to meet contract requirements. No further details about the turnaround were forthcoming.

Group II
Group II prices have shown a similar trend to Group I values in that the light grades were steady-to-firm on more limited supplies and ongoing demand, while prices for the heavy grades edged down. Discussions in South Korea were more muted due to various October holidays, culminating with the Harvest festival or Chuseok from Oct. 6-9. South Korean cargoes for October shipment have largely been placed, with most shipments moving to India, China, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

The sole Taiwanese Group II producer has reportedly offered discounts for term shipments in November. Domestic demand remains its top priority, but the producer also continued to entertain fresh export opportunities, particularly into India and the United Arab Emirates.

In China, domestic suppliers had revised down prices in the weeks leading to the holiday celebrated last week because they sought to conclude business as quickly as possible; one exception may be a Shandong producer whose plant will be starting a 45-day turnaround this month and was therefore less under pressure to sell. Volumes secured under contract were anticipated to meet most requirements in China for the time being, with buyers staying away from spot negotiations.

In India, discussions for South Korean Group II shipments were still muted following a national holiday in South Korea, but most immediate product needs appeared to be met by existing inventories, domestic supplies and import cargoes slated to arrive this month. Additionally, Indian buyers were waiting for U.S. producers’ offers, which are typically competitive as suppliers try to find buyers for the extra inventories they had held during hurricane season.

As was the case for Group I grades, prices for imported Group II light grades have inched up on tighter availability, while the 500N underwent moderate downward adjustments of $5 per metric ton on a CFR India basis.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia before the end of the year, but it could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule. The plant’s Group II supply has not been affected, but could be reduced as the producer plans to perform maintenance before the start-up of the expanded facilities.

Group III
Group III prices were mostly steady, propped up by a fairly balanced supply and demand ratio amid suppliers’ efforts to hold on to current price levels during contract negotiations. While most refineries were running at full tilt, the 4 cSt cut was still in a tighter spot than its counterparts, and this offered additional support to prices. The 8 cSt grade, on the other hand, has started to lengthen and this applied downward pressure to pricing. Plentiful supplies from the Middle East alleviated the tight availability from a couple of South Korean producers.

No impact on supplies was reported following a fire that was quickly extinguished at SK-Pertamina’s Group III plant in Dumai, Indonesia, on Oct. 1.

In China, the battle to maintain or increase market share continued, with competitive pricing used as the main weapon to achieve this goal. Domestic producers have been able to secure domestic accounts and appeared in a more comfortable position since the inception of Group III production in China, but they still hoped to keep foreign product from entering the country as much as possible. South Korean contract volumes continued to flow unencumbered.

In India, demand for Group III base oils is still comparatively low compared to other markets, but volumes have been steadily climbing as more Group III cuts are used in premium motor oils. Lubricant demand for automotive and motorcycle applications showed improved levels ahead of the Diwali festival in late October and following the government’s reduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in late September.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia in the fourth quarter, but it could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

• A 10,000-metric ton lot was expected to be shipped from Singapore to the U.S. Gulf the first week of November. It was not clear whether this was an intra-company shipment.
• A 3,000-ton parcel was under discussion for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Mailiao, Taiwan, in mid-October.
• Approximately 4,000-5,000 metric tons were quoted for shipment from Sriracha, Thailand, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, on Oct. 10-20.
• A second lot of about 6,000-8,000 tons was expected to cover Daesan, South Korea, and/or Mailiao, Taiwan, to Hamriyah, with loading dates between Oct. 20-30.
• A 1,000-ton parcel was expected to ship from Onsan, South Korea, to Zhangjiagang, China, on Oct. 20.
• A 1,500-ton cargo was mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Singapore at the end of Oct.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co.) has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. 
• Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September or October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove and houses a Group III base oils plant. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia.
• Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in the fourth quarter, but it could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two-three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures on Monday after falling to five-month lows in the previous session, as analysts hoped potential talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China could ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies and oil consumers, Reuters reported.

U.S. sanctions on a Chinese crude terminal operated by Sinopec were threatening to cut operating rates at several refineries.

• Brent December 2025 futures were trading at $63.57 per barrel on October 13, down from $65.58/bbl for front-month futures on October 6 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for November 2025 settled at $62.09/bbl on Oct. 10, down from $64.11/bbl for front-month futures on Oct. 3 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were mixed, with values for some grades moving up, some holding at steady levels from last week, and others slipping due to growing supply and weaker demand.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore

• Group I solvent neutral 150 was assessed at $780/t-$820/t, but the SN500 slipped by $10/t to $980/t-$1,020/t.
• Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,370-$1,410/t
• Group II 150N was holding at $820/t-$860/t, but the 500N was down by $10/t at $1,020/t-$1,060/t

FOB Asia

• Group I SN150 was assessed up by $10/t at $680/t-$720/t, but the SN500 edged down by $10/t to $810/t-$850/t. Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,210/t-$1,250/t
• Group II 150N was steady at $710/t-$750/t, but the 500N slipped by $10/t to $850/t-$890/t
• Group III grades were steady to soft, with the 4 cSt hovering at $1,080/t-$1,120/t, and the 6 cSt at $1,070/t-$1,110/t. The 8 cSt was adjusted down by $10/t to $930/t-$970/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.