The trade upheaval created by U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs was likely to affect the well-being of many Asian countries whose economies largely depend on exports. At the same time, the changing trade order may push some nations to engage in additional transactions with other countries within the region, and to encourage their populations to consume more domestic products instead of relying on imports. The U.S. and India remain at an impasse regarding reaching a trade deal. Trump’s 50% levies on Indian imports due to India’s purchases of Russian oil were nudging the South Asian nation towards developing closer ties with China. For the time being, pharmaceutical and electronics goods, which comprise approximately 30% of India’s exports to the U.S., are still exempt from tariffs.

Group I
Prices for the API Group I grades were largely stable given a balanced-to-tight supply and demand scenario. The heavy viscosity grades were more plentiful, and this was exerting pressure on spot pricing, although bright stock was still managing to evade significant downward adjustments. Group I SN500 also faced additional pressure from a Group II heavy grade supply overhang, as some consumers can use these grades as substitutes in many applications. Suppliers have revised offers for the heavy cuts down in order to secure deals, but buyers still appeared reluctant to up their bids to meet the required levels.

On the other hand, supplies of the Group I SN150 cut appeared to have tightened. The main supply source of Group I grades is still Southeast Asia, and most offers emerge from suppliers in this region. But there were reports of reduced rates at a Thai refinery, which have affected SN150 spot availability. Most of the refiner’s customers have not experienced any impact on their contractual volumes, but others were heard to be looking for a fallback option. Thai supplies of the heavy grades were still understood to be ample, and buyers were holding off on purchases in hopes that prices would edge down.

Thai flexibag offers of Group I SN500 and bright stock have been adjusted down, with SN500 heard near $990 per metric ton FCA Thailand – down about $10/t from the previous week – and bright stock at $1,390/t FCA, reflecting a $20/t drop from a week ago.

The Indonesian producer has offered flexibag volumes of SN130 and bright stock through a tender that closed on Sept. 15, and there were reports that the light grade cargo had been secured near $750/t ton ex-works Jakarta and that the bright stock lot had fetched around $1,350/t ex-works.

In China, buying interest in the heavy grades has started to wane as consumers start to stock the lighter grades for cold weather lubricant formulations. This condition and the fact that the heavy grades were more plentiful has made prices succumb to downward pressure. While bright stock was still considered on the tight side, and buying interest was fairly robust from applications that are not as affected by seasonal patterns, spot prices for imports have declined. Buyers did not seem eager to jump at the current offers of Thai product as they expected prices to weaken further on mounting availability, as domestic supply was also lengthening.

In India, the planned one-month turnaround at Chennai Petroleum’s Group I plant in Chennai that is slated to start in mid-September was expected to tighten domestic supplies, although term volumes appeared to be sufficient to meet requirements. The shutdown would coincide with an expected uptick in demand ahead of the Diwali celebration in mid-October, following lackluster lubricant consumption during the monsoon season. There were unconfirmed reports that the producer had considered postponing the shutdown. For the moment, spot prices were fairly stable as heightened demand has yet to materialize.

The Group I SN500 remained under pressure because of competition with the Group II heavy-viscosity cuts, which were heard to be available at attractive prices compared to Group I values. Additional imports were also anticipated to reach Indian shores in the coming weeks, although not of Iranian-origin cargoes, which triggered subdued interest due to current sanction concerns.

Group II
As was largely the case for the Group I heavy grades, prices for the high viscosity Group II cuts were also under pressure in Asia due to ample availability. The heavier cuts were more plentiful given that producers favored their output due to refinery economics. At the same time, demand remained sluggish, with buyers opting for running operations with term volumes and securing only smaller spot cargoes in order to avoid price risks.

In China, prices for the Group II heavy grades have declined, with domestic suppliers lowering their offers due to ample availability against weaker demand. China has increased its Group II capacity over the last ten years through the construction of new plants to reduce the industry’s dependence on imports, but this was leading to less advantageous refinery economics. The softer consumption trend also seemed to have started to affect the light grades, even though they were on the tighter side, with a Chinese producer adjusting its prices down.

In India, a majority of buyers seemed to have covered their September and October requirements through negotiations conducted over the last few weeks and prices were therefore stable, as fresh activity was muted. Several Group II shipments of Asian and U.S. origin were expected to reach India in the coming weeks, although the light grades were perceived as tighter than their heavy counterparts. There was downward pressure on 500N imports, with spot values heard to have moved down by approximately $5/t on a CFR India basis week on week.

There were also expectations that supply levels at Indian domestic plants would increase, following expansions that will be completed in the last quarter of the year, and this might bring downward price pressure too, although their start-up might be delayed.

Group III
Fairly balanced Group III supplies against current consumption levels led to stable pricing, even though the 8 centiStoke cut was more readily available and price pressure was mounting. However, there were reports that Group III supplies from a South Korean producer were still strained, although this did not seem to affect its contractual commitments.

In China, competitive activity between domestic producers and foreign suppliers has declined because buying appetite for imports was limited. Aside from choosing the lower domestic prices, buyers seemed to prefer local supplies as long as specifications were met because of shorter delivery times and lower price levels. This means that suppliers of imported product preferred to look for sales in other regions where buying interest was stronger and prices more attractive. That said, South Korean Group III volumes purchased under contract continued to move regularly to China.

In India, buying appetite for Group III cuts could see a boost from increased sales of passenger cars and motorcycles, although the trend points to a drop in auto sales during the monsoon season. Whether this tendency will be reversed remains to be seen. With the end of the heavy rains and the start of the Diwali festivities in October when people visit relatives in other parts of the country, there could be an uptick in lubricant consumption as well. Consumer goods in general see an increase in demand during Diwali as people decorate and illuminate their homes, purchase new clothes and exchange gifts.

Additional domestic base oil production was expected to be introduced after national oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia, scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter. While it may take a while for the market to absorb the added volumes, increased domestic availability was expected to place pressure on imports as well.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

• 17,000-30,000 tons of base oils were anticipated to be shipped from Yeosu, South Korea, to West Coast India the first week of October
• 3,500-ton cargo was discussed for shipment from Pyeongtaek, South Korea, to Chennai, India, between Oct. 10-25
• Second cargo of approximately 2,000 tons was also discussed for shipment from Pyeongtaek to Hazira, India, on the same dates
• 2,000-ton cargo was anticipated to load in Mailiao, Taiwan, for Port Klang, Malaysia, between Sept. 25-30
• About 1,000 tons were mentioned for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Vietnam, between Oct. 8-12
• 1,650-ton cargo was quoted for shipment from Onsan to Merak, Indonesia, mid-October
• 4,000-ton lot was quoted for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Indonesia, first half November
• Between 3,500 to 5,500 tons were anticipated to be shipped from Yeosu to Singapore and/or Malaysia, first half November

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in mid September for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two-three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures were steady to slightly firmer during early Monday trading as analysts continued to monitor the potential sanctions on Russian oil exports by the European Union amid reduced output due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries in the previous weeks. At the same time, Middle East crude benchmarks fell to multi-week lows on concerns about market oversupply given increased output by OPEC+ members.

• Brent November 2025 futures were trading at $66.32 per barrel on September 22, down from $67.26/bbl on September 15 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for October 2025 settled at $67.43/bbl on Sep. 19, down from $68.14/bbl for front-month futures on Sep. 12 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices were steady to soft, with values for some grades slipping on growing supply and weaker demand. The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was assessed at $780/t-$820/
SN500 was holding at $1,020/t-$1,060/t
Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,380-$1,420/t

Group II 150N was steady at $840/t-$880/t
500N was holding at $1,040/t-$1,080/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was holding at $670/t-$710/t
SN500 was assessed down by $10/t at $830/t-$870/t
Bright stock down by $10/t to $1,220/t-1,260/t

Group II 150N steady at $710/t-$750/t
500N down by $10/t to $860/t-$900/t

Group III grades all stable
4 cSt at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt at $1,070/t-$1,110/t
8 cSt at $940/t-$980/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.