West Texas Intermediate slumped over the weekend and started the week in bearish territory, but attention turned to the meeting between Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several key European leaders in Washington on Monday.

International sanctions on Russian crude exports did not seem to have deterred Russia’s ability to profit from the global sale of fossil fuels. Russia remains a key crude oil supplier to countries such as India and this seems unlikely to change any time soon, media sources reported.

Crude oil futures did not seem to impact base oil prices significantly, although lower gasoil values do affect refinery decisions and base oil run rates. Supply and demand fundamentals seemed to play a much more significant role, with base oil prices for those grades that were oversupplied trending lower and others managing to hold on to steady levels on more limited availability.

Group I

The API Group I segment continued to show pockets of tight supplies given ongoing global supply deficits due to permanent plant closures and more recently various maintenance programs at several plants in Southeast Asia and Japan. However, most of these turnarounds have now been completed, allowing producers to offer additional spot cargoes, which has started to exert downward pressure on prices.

Producers in Indonesia and Thailand often come to the market with spot availability, but their ability to supply spot cargoes has partly been thwarted by scheduled plant maintenance and the need to prioritize domestic requirements. Singapore is also a key supplier of Group I grades and is imminently expected to be offering a Group II heavy grade with similar characteristics to bright stock because ExxonMobil has commenced start-up of its Singapore Resid Upgrade and has begun to build inventories. The project adds around 20,000 barrels per day capacity of light, heavy and extra-heavy Group II base stocks for global distribution, of which 6,000 bbl/d will be extra-heavy base stocks.

For the time being, bright stock spot supply was still deemed very tight in the region as demand was firm and there were few producers that were able to offer spot availability, which propped prices up. However, buyers have started to resist the steep offers on market uncertainties and discussions were heard to be taking place at slightly lower levels.

The Group I light and heavy-viscosity cuts also showed fairly strained conditions and prices were therefore steady, although the heavy grades were slightly more available, particularly since Group II heavy-viscosity cuts were being used as an alternative to SN500 at competitive prices.

A Thai refiner has restarted production following a planned turnaround, and this was expected to allow for additional product to enter the domestic supply system as well as leave extra volumes for spot business. The producer therefore offered some Group I SN500 and bright stock through a tender that closed on Aug. 7 as well as bulk volumes of the same cuts later in the week. It could not be ascertained whether this was because the tender had not been awarded.

An Indonesian producer was heard to be prioritizing domestic requirements and has restricted its spot availability.

A Japanese producer was heard to have restarted its Group I plant and was expected to resume exports in September or October.

Chinese buyers have expressed subdued interest in Group I imports, despite the fact that the country has a deficit of the heavy-viscosity grades. However, there were plentiful supplies of Group II grades given the start-up of several Group II plants in recent years, and some blenders were able to replace Group I cuts with Group II grades at competitive prices in certain applications.

Demand for Group I bright stock has been somewhat affected by dampened industrial and agricultural production in China as it has partly suffered from the tariffs imposed by President Trump on Chinese exports moving to the U.S. The effects have not been strong yet as many U.S. importers front-loaded products ahead of the effective date of the tariffs. Many exports made their way to the U.S. in the previous weeks, but trading and manufacturing was expected to slow down, impacting demand for lubricants for industrial applications and Group I grades. In fact, ASEAN countries in general were bracing for slower growth in the coming months after front-loading helped second-quarter GDP results, local media reported.

Bright stock domestic prices were steady in China as suppliers were hoping for increased demand, and import prices have edged up due to limited availability as importers had been rather cautious in terms of how much product to secure over the last few weeks given precarious demand levels.

In India, Group I prices were steady, with expectations that availability from Iran would increase as shipments to the United Arab Emirates have improved. Indian consumers have also been relying heavily on domestic Group I supplies as production has ramped up and most plants were running well or have secured Group II cargoes whenever applications allowed for substitution.

Requirements have also been tempered by the monsoons and disruptions in manufacturing and transportation activities, but the end of the season in September meant that buyers have already been on the lookout for replenishment volumes. Import prices for Group I grades were heard to have remained largely unchanged from the previous week.

Group II

motive segment, which used to be a larger consumer of Group II grades. Imports were limited as buyers continued to favor local supplies, especially since local producers have lowered their pricing.

In India, Group II prices were assessed as steady, with buyers appearing slightly cautious as upstream uncertainties lingered and some downstream applications were also affected by general economic activities and plentiful lubricant inventories.

Group II light grade prices were largely unchanged, with the heavy grades also stabilizing this week after seeing downward adjustments the previous week. The heavy grades were considered more plentiful as refiners favor output of these grades because of higher margins. Local suppliers were maintaining offers despite buyers’ push for lower pricing.

There were expectations of increased spot export availability from the U.S. once suppliers start to offer the extra supplies that have been kept for potential severe weather disruptions during the hurricane season. The peak of the hurricane season along the U.S. Gulf runs from August until September.

Group III

Following the return to production of several Group III plants after the completion of turnarounds in Asia and the Middle East, Group III spot supplies have increased, starting to exert pressure on price indications. Nevertheless, there were reports of reduced availability of Group III 4 cSt and 8 cSt grades from a South Korean supplier.

At the same time, a spot cargo originating in Abu Dhabi was heard to have been offered for September loading, although further details were unavailable. There were also expectations of increased supplies emerging from Bahrain next month as Bapco completed a maintenance program at its plant in late July, according to sources. The producer was building inventories and meeting contract commitments but has yet to offer spot supplies.

In China, Group III values were steady this week but remained under pressure due to competition of local producers with importers. Both groups compete to protect or increase market share. A seasonal demand slowdown and prospects of reduced demand from downstream automotive lubricant markets on a significant increase in vehicle electrification also pressured prices. However, this week, there were no additional price cutbacks reported because of more limited availability, perhaps because of reduced run rates. Many state-run refineries cut operating rates when market economics are not favorable.

In India, Group III prices have stabilized, with fewer spot cargoes being redirected to India from other higher-value outlets. Several Middle East and Asian Group III cargoes were heard on their way to the U.S., and European buyers were anticipated to step back into the market once the summer holidays are over at the end of August. Buying interest in Group III was generally holding as some buyers were looking to replenish stocks, but this may be a short-lived trend. Whether demand can be sustained remained to be seen.

In India, Group II prices were assessed as steady, with buyers appearing slightly cautious as upstream uncertainties lingered, and some downstream applications were also affected by general economic activities and plentiful lubricant inventories.

Group II light grade prices were largely unchanged, with the heavy grades also stabilizing this week after seeing downward adjustments the previous week. The heavy grades were considered more plentiful as refiners favor output of these grades because of higher margins. Local suppliers were maintaining offers despite buyers’ push for lower pricing.

There were expectations of increased spot export availability from the U.S. once suppliers start to offer the extra supplies that have been kept for potential severe weather disruptions during the hurricane season. The peak of the hurricane season along the U.S. Gulf runs from August until September.

About 2,000-3,000 metric tons of base oils were discussed for shipment from South Korea and/or Taiwan to West Coast India and Pakistan in late August.

• A 1,400-1,500-ton cargo was discussed for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Taiwan the first week of September.
• A 1,000-ton lot was mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Huizhou, China, in the second half of September.
• A 900-ton parcel was on the table for loading in Onsan to Bangkok at the end of August. A second parcel of about 1,300 tons was also mentioned to cover the same route at the end of September.
• About 1,000 tons were also mentioned for shipment from Onsan to Indonesia the first week of September.
• Between 8,000 and 10,000 tons were quoted for shipment from Ulsan, South Korea, and/or Mailao, Taiwan, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, at the end of September.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance is likely to ease as a number of turnarounds are completed and plants restarted. Ongoing shutdowns at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds earlier in the year are still listed as they may impact pricing beyond completion.

Group I

• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was anticipated to be shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• Chennai Petroleum scheduled a turnaround at its Group I base oils plant in Chennai, India, starting in September.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance is scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations with limited spot availability for export.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May-June) and Mizushima B (Feb-May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that may last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• Formosa Petrochemical has scheduled a turnaround at its Mailiao plant in the fourth quarter.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, (late February to May), with limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two-three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• Bapco reportedly began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude

Crude oil futures slipped early in the week as negative signals emerged from Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin, with experts less hopeful that progress toward peace in Ukraine will be achieved even after the meeting of Trump and Zelensky and other European leaders in Washington on Monday.

An International Energy Agency (IEA) report last week also predicted that global oil demand growth would slow this year as weaker economic conditions and a downcast outlook weigh on consumption, and this also pressured oil prices.

• Brent October 2025 futures traded at $65.97 per barrel on August 18, down from $66.71/bbl on August 11 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for September 2025 settled at $66.39/bbl on August 15, down from $66.86/bbl for front-month futures on August 8 (CME).

Base Oils

Spot base oil prices were steady to soft, with values for some grades slipping on growing supply.

Price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 slipped by $10/t to $810/t-$850/t, and the SN500 was also adjusted down by $10/t to reflect current discussions at $1,060/t-$1,100/t. Bright stock prices were firm at $1,390/t-$1,430/t (all ex-tank Singapore).

Group II 150N held at $850/t-$890/t, and the 500N was hovering at $1,070/t-$1,110/t.

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was holding at $690/t-$730/t
SN500 was assessed down by $10/t at $890/t-$930/t
Bright stock slipped by $10/t to $1,270/t-$1,310/t

Group II 150N was steady at $710/t-$750/
500N was also unchanged at $890/t-$930/t

All Group III grades were steady on largely unchanged fundamentals
4 cSt heard at $1,090/t-$1,130/t
6 cSt holding at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
8 cSt hovering at $960/t-$1,000/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.