There was a time when base oil suppliers were questioning whether the prolonged downward spiral in pricing would ever come to an end.
Base stock prices have been largely under pressure since June 2014, after crude oil values started their dramatic descent – falling from lofty levels of around $115 per barrel to the more modest numbers seen these days.
While a few small base oil price upticks managed to get pushed through in the interim, the market generally succumbed to oversupply conditions and weaker feedstock values, resulting in a series of consecutive downward adjustments.
A case in point was the round of price decreases that clenched the market in late February, and culminated in markdowns ranging 10 to 25 cents per gallon, depending on grade and producer.
Then crude oil values staged a sudden rebound in early March, with West Texas Intermediate futures moving from around $30 per barrel to slightly below $40 per barrel. Just like when a cool, trendy item goes on sale and one has to get it before it is gone, suppliers had to pounce while conditions were favorable.
Chevron stepped out with a price initiative that raised its API Group II light-viscosity grade by 15 cents per gallon and its mid- and heavy-vis oils by 20 cents on March 9.
Likewise, Flint Hills Resources reacted rapidly to the shift in fundamentals and increased its postings 15 cents per gallon across the board, nominating the same effective date as Chevron. On March 11, Phillips 66 added 15 cents to its Group II light-vis prices and 20 cents to the mid-vis and heavy cuts.
Sources indicated that ExxonMobil lifted its Group I light- and mid-vis oils 15 cents per gallon, its SN600 17 cents, and bright stock 12 cents, all on March 14. The producers Group II EHC 65 and Group II+ EHC 45 moved up 15 cents.
Calumet, HollyFrontier, Paulsboro and Kleen Performance Products also increased postings along similar lines, as most producers had been chomping at the bit to find an opportunity to lift prices.
Whether the upward momentum can be sustained is difficult to say, but it is understandable that producers will do their utmost to maintain stability in a market that has been extremely volatile and unpredictable, and that can change from hot to cold in a matter of days.