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A Messy Brexit Will Be Damaging to All

That was the dire prediction delivered by Stephen Le Roux to delegates at the ICIS World Base Oils and Lubricants Conference in February. The Head of Economics at the U.K. Chemical Industries Association continued, The present negotiation strategy means that an ideal outcome is unlikely to be on the table at this stage. His comments generated a great deal of discussion during the conference breaks.

A few weeks later, Britains Chancellor Philip Hammond raised the stakes even further when he said in an interview that the U.K. would do whatever we need to do to be competitive on the world stage if Britain leaves the European Union without a trade agreement. He refused to go so far as to suggest the U.K. would slash business taxes to attract investment away from the EU, but the implications were clear.

In this months Base Oil Report, Ray Masson writes, Translating the effects of Brexit into a base oil context is not simple. However, since the U.K. is a net importer of base oil, traders and importers have already started to pay higher prices for these products. He covers the full ramifications of the split-up on base oil markets in his column beginning on Page 6.

In his presentation, Le Roux noted that the effect of Brexit on world trade depends on the outcome of the negotiations. Most companies are resilient and resourceful, and market opportunities mean solutions will be found, he said, while cautioning that a poor resolution to Brexit will damage not just the U.K. but Europe as a whole.

British Prime Minister Theresa May was set to trigger Article 50 and begin the formal process of Britains exit from the EU by the end of March. Brexit is an unprecedented event for the EU, said Le Roux. So far, the U.K. and other European economies have escaped relatively unscathed. But it wont last, and European competitiveness will suffer.

Observers estimate that the earliest Brexit could be fully implemented is March 2019. But according to Masson, some observers think it could take another five years before the country can take its place as an independent entity. In the meantime, it promises to be a rocky ride. You can depend on LubesnGreases to keep you abreast of the latest developments and the effects on your business.

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