Numan was speaking about relationships, but the lyrics take on a much more practical meaning as one contemplates the future of electric vehicles and their relationship with the motoring public. Broke down? Well, no ones suggesting the new emerging breed of EVs will be mechanically unreliable per se; quite the opposite, in fact. But the manufacturers do face a sizeable PR challenge in persuading their target customers that these new vehicles wont let them down simply by running out of juice; a dilemma referred to in the industry as range anxiety.

Simply put, the contemporary lithium-based battery technologies (of which there is a moving and, admittedly, improving feast) are currently hindered by weight and very high cost. This means that the typical market-ready passenger car EV is constrained to an operational range of around 80 to 120 miles (approx 130-200 km) between charges of up to 7 hours. This range can be slashed by more than half in cold weather, not least due to the power drain caused by the electrically heated cabin, heated rear window, etc, but also due to a significant thermally-induced deterioration in battery performance.

It therefore remains to be seen if this generation of EVs will befriend the motoring public, or leave them lamenting their purchase, head in hands at the side of the road. Certainly the practical utility of EVs will have a large effect on the level of popularity they are able to achieve. Manufacturers of these vehicles are not the only ones with a lot riding on the outcome. The lubricant industry does, too, because theoretically at least, most EVs should require precious little lubrication. Not exactly a friendly proposition for lubes marketers.

So, do electric vehicles present a big threat, and is the lubricants industry ignoring them? Or do lubricant and additive manufacturers have reason to believe battery power wont gain acceptance anytime soon? After all, the hydrogen fuel cell has been 10 years away for the last 30 years and probably will be so for the next 30.

Its possible that lubricant and additive companies are still trying to work out how big the threat is. The problem is that, with the introduction of any disruptive technology, sales forecasts are notoriously imprecise. For example, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association predicts that demand for electrically chargeable vehicles will grow to constitute anywhere between 3 percent and 10 percent of new vehicle sales by the years 2020 to 2025.

Thats quite a spread, and its hardly surprising, then, if the likely effect on lube sales is difficult to fathom. Just to be clear, we are mainly talking about the passenger car market and perhaps light commercial vehicles based on the same platforms. The heavier commercial sectors are another story. But figures published by the United Kingdom government in October 2008 and by the European Commissions Joint Research Centre in December 2009 offered similarly wide-ranging forecasts. The former, covering U.K. market expectations, was provided in a report that was brave enough to extend its predictions as far as 2030.

Interestingly, the U.K. report is one of the few freely available that attempts to assess the impact not just on new vehicle sales, but the cumulative effect on the total vehicle park – statistics of more relevance to purveyors of service fluids. The mid-range scenario points to 2.5 percent of all cars being able to connect to the electrical grid by 2020 and 11.7 percent by 2030. The 2030 figure escalates to 32 percent and even 60 percent, respectively, with assumptions based on high and extreme levels of penetration.

It is not altogether clear whether the recent global recession and soaring fuel prices, which post-date most forecasts, will push consumers towards or away from electric vehicles. At first glance, it would seem that even more uncertainty is creeping in, but perhaps not. The above forecasts have effected a subtle but significant change in nomenclature and, as a result, impart credibility to the more optimistic projections. Suddenly we are talking about connectivity and electrically chargeable vehicles, instead of out-and-out EVs. In addition to pure EVs, this embraces a plethora of hybrid driveline concepts, all with plug-in capability for battery charging. Importantly, the internal combustion engine is retained and with it the need for engine oil, albeit perhaps with changing performance priorities.

Contradictory as it may sound, one of the solutions to the EV battery conundrum is to put the internal combustion engine back in. In its simplest form, the so-called series hybrid uses the IC engine (minus any driveline connection) only as a generator to charge the battery. Indeed, as an OEM weapon to counter range anxiety, it is entirely feasible that the engine will become an optional extra; a configuration referred to as the Range Extended Electric Vehicle.

The operating environment will be markedly different for IC engines fitted to series hybrids and range-extended EVs. For starters, they will be controlled by computer rather than the right foot of a human being. Revolutions per minute will be limited to one or maybe two engine speeds, around which lightweight hardware designs can be optimized. There will be no need for complex variable valve timing, no camshaft perhaps, and maybe no need for antiwear additives such as zinc dialkyl dithiophosphates.

With reduction of carbon dioxide emissions becoming such a priority, efficiency will take precedence over power density. Engines modestly rated and moderately loaded will be able to push the boundaries of light viscosity oils in the interest of fuel economy. How could this change base oil, viscosity modifier or even friction modifier requirements and who knows what else?

Within a tightly controlled operating envelope, it should be possible to fine tune the entire lubricant formulation much more precisely to engine needs. We are probably a long way off needing an engine oil category specifically for series hybrids and range extenders, but it is an intriguing prospect.

By coincidence, Numans only other musical outing of popular note – this time without Tubeway Army – was titled Cars. Its neurotic lyrics are thankfully devoid of any tenuous inspiration for the conclusion of this column. One thought does occur, though. The sums being spent on by governments and automakers alike on EV and hybrid research and development are eye watering, even in these hard-pressed times. To say they will be hoping the EV turns into more than a one or two hit wonder would be something of an understatement.

Until battery technology renders the hybrid obsolete, there will be a need for engine lubricants. However, the all-electric Nissan Leaf went on sale earlier this year. One online advertising campaign reads:

Is the new Nissan Leaf just another car?

No exhaust pipe

No engine oil

No gearbox No road tax

No petrol

No congestion charge

Car of the Year 2011 (Europe)

Hmmm, no engine oil. The lubes industry has been put on notice.