Todd Onderdonk, a senior energy advisor for corporate strategic planning at ExxonMobil, presented the companys latest global energy outlook in February at the ICIS World Base Oils and Lubricants Conference in London. The predictions are dramatic – a 35 percent increase in worldwide energy demand from 2005 to 2030, primarily due to increased usage in developing nations.

In terms of energy units, the biggest increases will be for industrial activities, Onderdonk said, but demand for transportation will rise a lot, too, along with consumption by commercial and residential users. This column, of course, focuses on transportation. ExxonMobil projects that global energy demand from that sector will increase roughly 25 percent between last year and 2030.

Its not just that the forecast calls for significant growth; ExxonMobil also expects significant shifts in current demand. First there is the geographic breakdown. The company expects a slight decrease in transportation energy demand from developed nations. Numbers of vehicles and distances traveled in those countries will increase, Onderdonk said, but those factors will be offset by improvements in fuel economy.

Developing nations will presumably enjoy similar improvements in efficiency, but vehicle populations will grow so much that energy consumption will be huge.

The other big shift that ExxonMobil foresees will be in the relative energy consumption by different types of vehicles. Today light duty vehicles account for upwards of 40 percent of total demand from transportation, Onderdonk said, but consumption by light duty vehicles will decline slightly while consumption by heavy-duty trucks, aviation, marine and rail all increase. By 2030, the forecast shows the heavy-duty segment surpassing the light-duty in energy consumption. In addition, energy consumption by the combined aviation, marine and rail sectors will approach that of light duty.

Thats not to say that there will be more travel by heavy-duty trucks than by cars, vans and pickups. The latter get much better fuel economy, and, moreover, energy consumption by other modes can hardly be compared. But one can surmise that ExxonMobil expects travel by heavy-duty trucks to grow significantly, and that would seem to imply corresponding increases in lube demand by those trucks. Likewise, aviation, marine and rail would presumably become significantly bigger users of lubricants.

Numerous analysts in the lubricant industry have already predicted significant lube demand growth in developing nations and flat to declining demand in the developed world. Put all of those projections together and they suggest some obvious strategies for the types of markets lube suppliers might prepare to serve – in terms of both geography and mode of transportation.

Onderdonk said there will also be shifts in the types of energy used, though the changes will be somewhat smaller in the transportation sector than elsewhere. ExxonMobil expects global use of coal to decline and demand for oil, which has been rising, to begin to flatten. In contrast, consumption of natural gas and nuclear energy will rise significantly, while sources such as biomass, wind and solar also grow, albeit from lower bases.

Oil will remain the dominant energy source for transportation, he said, accounting for approximately 98 percent of that segments demand. Gasoline will remain the most popular choice of fuel for passenger vehicles, followed by diesel, but the number of hybrid and other alternatively fueled vehicles will rise rapidly. By 2030 the latter will account for approximately 15 percent of the globes fleet of personal vehicles.

These trends would affect the lubricants industry in two ways – how the energy is obtained and how it is consumed. The supply chains for oil and gas use different machinery than those for nuclear, solar and biomass. On oil rig needs drill mud whereas solar panels require little lubrication of any type. Therefore, to the extent that energy sources shift, lubricant companies can expect changes in the types of products they supply to the energy sector – not to mention in the identify of their customers.

In addition, the lubrication needs of vehicles can differ depending on the type of fuel they use. For example, natural gas tends to burn hotter than gasoline or diesel, so engine lubricants in vehicles powered by natural gas need more robust high-temperature performance.

Going along from day to day, it can seem that markets change little or not at all. In fact, industry and society are changing rapidly now – and probably at accelerating paces. These changes are bound to affect the lubricants industry.

It would not be prudent to rely on one companys predictions – not even an international energy giant that invests billions of dollars based on its energy demand forecasts. But its opinion can at least be one ingredient in the pot.