The deal is the withdrawal agreement that sets out the separation process of the U.K. from the EU and lays the groundwork for new trade agreements, among other things. But after parliament rejected the agreement drafted by Prime Minister Theresa Mays government by a historic margin, the future of the relationship was cast into doubt.

If parliament had accepted the deal, it would have laid out a transition period that gives businesses until December 2020 to adjust to the new realities of logistics and customs.

If no agreement is reached between the U.K. and EU by March 29, the day the divorce is final, all EU regulations governing the management of trade would cease to apply, forcing the U.K. to adopt World Trade Organization trade rules, which means increased tariffs and delays to exports and imports of products on either side of a new hard border.

This lack of certainty severely effects lubricants and additive companies, both those that are in the U.K. attempting to export into the EU, and those located in the remaining 27 member states that have U.K.-based companies and customers in their supply chains. After withdrawal, the consequences could be very difficult to surmount. Whatever those challenges may be, one thing that businesses need is to be able to plan for the future.

The concern for UKLA members is that we need certainty in order to plan for the future, keep investing and keep supporting the U.K. lubricants market. And the certainty is just not there at the moment, David Wright, director of the U.K. Lubricants Association, told LubesnGreases.

The associations advice to its membership is to have a contingency plan based on a no-deal outcome – but not to implement it yet – and to review their stock levels by March 29. Wright cited European independent lubricants company Fuchs, which has brought forward about three months worth of stock in case of logistics chain disruptions.

At the moment, thanks to its membership in the EU, the U.K. enjoys tariff alleviation on base oil imports from outside the bloc. This benefit may disappear if a deal is not reached, Wright warned.

Its important to retain tariff alleviation on the import of base oils where we can. And on additives, we dont want any more tariffs than is absolutely necessary to ensure the U.K. remains a competitive market that benefits end users, he said.

Although the UKLA takes a neutral position on the issue of whether the U.K. should remain in the EU or leave, it is clear about what it considers to be beneficial to its members livelihoods.

We want access to a single market, we want a customs union, and we want to be part of this going forward, Wright said. Thats in the best interests of our members and users, eventually. We dont want a no-deal situation. Theres too much uncertainty and our guys will hold off on investment decisions until there is certainty.