Goal 12 says that by 2030, the world needs to sustainably and efficiently use natural resources and reduce waste through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse. Goal 13 includes a commitment to integrate climate change mitigation measures into national policies, strategies and planning, for which the major driver should be reducing greenhouse gases.

What this has to do with base oils and lubricants? First, we need to factor in that a major end-user of lubricants made from mineral base oils is the transport sector. Transport accounts for about 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, behind electricity and heat generation (31 percent) and ahead of manufacturing (11 percent).

This has led the European Union, where transport accounts for 27 percent of emissions, to include reductions in CO₂ in its vehicle emissions standards. The first standard to deal with this, Euro 6 in 2015, had a target of 130 grams per kilometer – easily met by most original equipment manufacturers through engine modifications and fuel economy measures.

Expected this year, Euro 7s more severe emission target of 95 g/km means most OEMs must lighten powertrains and introduce electric vehicles in order to meet fleet average emissions targets. Failure to hit the target will result in fines adding up to millions of euros. The pressure to achieve it is tremendous.

This has helped define the future of passenger cars and heavy-duty vehicles. The combination of continually improved fuel consumption for internal combustion engines and meeting EV lubricant needs is changing the nature of lubricant formulations and, therefore, the base oils and additives required.

For passenger cars, premium engine oil viscosities have been decreasing for many years. In Europe, the widespread use of SAE 10W-30/40 engine oils has been surpassed by 5W-20/30 and now to 0W-XX. In the United States, there are already almost no passenger car engine oils for new cars with viscosities above 5W-XX. For heavy-duty vehicles, SAE 15W-40 was the traditional grade, but this has reduced to 10W-30 and now 5W-20 or 30 is being used.

These very low viscosities can only be blended with low-viscosity base fluids with excellent volatility and oxidative and thermal stability, which means an ever-increasing need for Group III and polyalphaolefins. For the larger volumes of heavy-duty diesel oils, some Group I viscosity grades can be used, but Group II base oils will still be the predominant material with some Group IIIs.

Although these fuel economy oils support climate change goals by reducing friction and therefore fuel consumption, they do not hit the sustainability target. Demand for these fossil-based oils is unlikely do decrease substantially over the next 10 years, since ICEs will continue to dominate the vehicle parc and hybrids still need conventional engine oils.

Using base fluids derived from natural sources, such as bio-based oils, is one way to meet sustainability goals. Vegetable oils and refined esters have been used for many years but have often suffered from performance and cost issues, compared with mineral oils. However, in recent years many renewable base oils have overcome these deficiencies, and a number of major engine oils have been launched using a substantial quantity of bio-based oil in their formulations.

Many bio-based products, including synthetic hydrocarbons, are produced from conventional raw materials, such as sugar, sunflower, caster and palm. Now new materials, such as cardoon and algae, are now being developed. This is exactly what is required for the relevant target in Goal 12, but major support via legislation or regulations is needed for these types of oils to replace any significant volume of mineral oils.

About 3 million metric tons per year of base oils are used in automotive lubricants produced in Europe, Middle East and Africa. Yet, hardly any are bio-based based, of which about 300,000 tons are produced per year in the region. The relatively high production cost of these base oils is still an issue, as well as the justification of the very expensive engine test programs needed.

One other issue in Goal 13 is public procurement practices which should promote sustainability. The U.S. Department of Agricultures Bio Preferred Certification Program defines the minimum levels of renewable material for lubricants for certain applications. For engine oils, this needs to be greater than 25 percent. Federal agencies and their contractors are required to initially consider lubricants with this certification. This has been considered in Europe but more needs to be done to formalize and expand its use.

Europe has certainly address Goal 12s aim to substantially reduce waste through a healthy used-oil recycling industry. Numerous companies produce rerefined oils, many of which have gone through rigorous refining processes to yield oils of Group II quality. The sector can produce more than 1 million tons per year, which is a significant share of the regions base oil market.

Another process generating commercial interest is production of oils from used plastic bags. But the drive to eradicate them may tighten supplies of raw material.

These examples illustrate the wide range of activities to support the U.N. targets that are relevant to the oil industry. But they will never be effective enough without legislation, specifications or regulations to encourage companies to do what is necessary.