That said, the amount of open space is not huge, and between now and the end of the year most of it should be mopped up with routine business or additional contractual material.

That space exists however is just sufficient to stop any of the more bullish ship owners from pushing through rate increases. Instead, we see a fairly balanced market in terms of freight for the remainder of December. Space exists in the U.S. Gulf-to-Caribbean market, for example, even around to the west coast of Central America.

A 3,000 ton cargo of base oils from Houston to Colombia would cost in the low $40s/t. Space can be found fairly easily into Brazil. From Houston to Santos, 5,000 ton cargoes currently cost in the low-to-mid $30s/t.

Eastbound transatlantic has slowed with fewer aromatics parcels quoted, although we have started to see biodiesel cropping up again on this route. U.S. Gulf-to-Asia is pretty well booked out for the rest of the month, and rate ideas are notional, at least until January.

Europe
European coastal markets have slowed to the extent that quite a lot of tonnage is open this week, all needing a rather large influx of fresh material that requires shipment prior the end of the year. The uncertainty alone ensures that some competitive freight levels will be offered on European coastal business. Should the situation deteriorate and further ships become open before Christmas it may then be possible to see vessels that do not normally trade on the deep-sea markets suddenly find themselves dispatched to unfamiliar territory just as a way of employing the ship over the holiday season.

Right now, transatlantic westbound may appeal to some owners. We see benzene in particular going across, and since scheduled space is scarce rates have begun to climb. A 5,000 ton cargo from Rotterdam to the U.S. Atlantic coast could fetch in the low $30s/t if needing immediate shipment.

Europe-to-Asia is also fairly firm. There are a couple of vessels that do have bits and pieces of space, but owners rate ideas are well into the $80s/t for larger cargoes, and pushing well into the $120s/t for 2,000 to 3,000 tons from Rotterdam to Yangtze.

Cargo opportunities from Europe to India have thinned, but equally the list of available ships has thinned too, making it a challenge to fix some cargoes into the Indian Ocean.

Asia
Asian coastal markets have become even busier, and the shortage of December space is causing freights to rise, in some case quite steeply. Asia into India and the Middle East Gulf, for instance, is under pressure and rates are rising. Driven by strong demand for cargoes of solvents and aromatics into India, as well as plentiful palm oil liftings, owners are forging ahead with rates in the low $30s/t for 10,000 to 12,000 ton cargoes of palm oil from the Malacca Straits to the west coast of India.

Even palm oil shipments to Europe are paying higher freights. Smaller parcels into ports that are deemed as outports, for example a number of smaller ports in the Mediterranean, have seen levels as high as $80/t paid on 5,000 to 6,000 ton cargoes from the Straits. It is worth noting however that rates in the $60s/t have been done for similar business. It just depends upon precise timing and tonnage availability on the day.

The Middle East Gulf and India regions are also busy with many cargoes quoted locally. Rates are displaying some firmness from the Middle East Gulf into the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, for example, and a 5,000 ton cargo of base oils from Iran to the eastern Mediterranean may now end up costing closer to $60/t.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found at www.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached directly at research@ssy.co.uk or by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the U.S., SSYs Steve Rosenthal can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or +1 203-961-1566.

Adrian Brown will be away for the remainder of 2009, returning Jan. 6.