Still, many observers remained skeptical about the cartels chances of pushing crude prices back to their target range of $22-$28 per barrel. Some argued that the level of cutback promised by Russia is insignificant. Others speculated that OPEC members will fail to stick to their cutbacks, expected to be as high as 1.5 million gallons per day. Moreover, many believe that the downward pressure of slackening demand will prove stronger than the cartel.

I know that OPEC is threatening cutbacks but I think that demand has decreased so much because of the economy that theyre not going to have the impact that they would like, one large base oil procurer said.

Base oil suppliers lowered prices last month but many suppliers and buyers agree that room remains for further cuts. One marketer predicted that base oil prices will fall again this year, even if OPEC manages a moderate increase in crude prices.

Crude could go a couple dollars in either direction and the price of base oil might not change, he said. What will impact the base oil market right now is that spreads are still high. If Im a betting man, Id guess that prices are going to go down.

Historic U.S. posted base oil pricesand WTI and Brent crude spot prices are available for purchase in Excel format.