SSY Base Oil Shipping Report

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Asian markets are beginning to experience tightness on some routes. A slight improvement was noticed on a couple European routes too, but nevertheless there remains a substantial overhang of open tonnage. The U.S. had a pretty quiet week.

U.S. Gulf

Transatlantic eastbound was about the only route out of the U.S. that saw any sustained activity, and again, it was mainly styrene that caused all the excitement. Freight rates remain fairly firm as a result, with typical 5,000 ton parcels from Houston to Rotterdam fetching around $47/t. Amongst all the styrene there were some smaller requirements for biodiesel and even an enquiry for a small parcel of base oils from Houston to Northwest Europe.

U.S. Gulf to the Caribbean has been generally calm, with most activity focused on the edible oils market. All the same, there had been a fixture of a small lot of base oils into Rio Haina. U.S. Gulf to the east coast of South America saw spot requirements for styrene and paraxylene, but otherwise it has largely been a contractual market.

U.S. Gulf to Far East has been dull and uninspiring. Ethanol is still the primary product in demand, with some cumene, methylmethacrylate and acrylonitrile to add some variety. Aromatics are missing, however, with prices working the wrong way and thus frustrating U.S. exports. A small lot of base oils was being tried from Paulsboro to China.

U.S. Gulf to India and the Middle East Gulf is expected to see some base oil movements too. Freights are hanging in the $80s/t for bigger cargoes, but space is becoming tighter, unless some additional tonnage is able to squeeze on berth.

Europe

Trade in clean petroleum in the North Sea and Baltic had another reasonably brisk week, though perhaps not quite as frantic as the preceding week. Parcel trades have been steady with the emphasis more on contractual liftings than spot fixing. As a result there are a number of tramp vessels in the area that are finding it very hard to secure employment. Base oils have been pretty quiet with just the occasional Baltic parcel moving to Northwest Europe.

Southbound into the Mediterranean saw some trader activity in base oils, but in general, owners are still finding it hard to fill all the space on their ships. The week did see a bit more spot volume for loading in November, such as ethylene dichloride, MTBE, ethanol and biodiesel which might auger well going into the next week or two.

Northbound has seen owners scrambling for any cargo, and in the mayhem some long-established freight levels have buckled. In one instance, a 2,500 ton parcel from the west coast of Italy to Rotterdam recorded a 20 percent to 30 percent rate reduction. Ships that have been open in the western Med have fared the worst, whereas rates out of the eastern Med and Black Sea have been more resilient, helped by better demand for clean petroleum and vegetable oil.

Transatlantic westbound has continued to see a reasonable level of demand, yet in spite of this, rates have slipped slightly. The reason for the decrease would appear to be owners who desperately want to get away from Europe and are willing to undercut one another in order to achieve that. Pyrolysis gasoline has been the mainstay of the route, with one cargo of 15,000 tons from the west Med fetching an incredibly low level in the mid-to-high $30s/t.

Several 5,000 to 6,000 ton parcels have been in evidence from the central Med, where rates in the mid $60s to mid $70s/t rule. A parcel of base oils has been looking to ship to the U.S. Gulf from the west Med, and numbers are likely to be similar to the freights for aromatics. From Northwest Europe, there has been talk of caustic, cumene, mixed xylenes, paraxylene, pyrolysis gasoline and wax.

Europe to Far East is mostly slow, but there have been a number of fixtures in the low-to-mid $80s/t for 5,000 ton quantities, which is up from the frantic fixing done back in October. Europe to India and the Middle East Gulf is steady with rates for 2,000 ton parcels from Rotterdam to the west coast of India seeing upper $90s/t and getting done a little lower than that.

Asia

Business continues to develop quite nicely on a number of domestic Asia routes. Inter-Far East is particularly busy, and cargoes are becoming harder to fix on a prompt basis. Many ships have booked forwards into second-half November positions, with a lucky few now showing only December space.

Southbound routes are struggling to find sufficient tonnage, and one of the reasons appears to be that northbound routes are sluggish and ships cannot secure sufficient cargo back up. Inter-Southeast Asia is another area where things are not as rosy as in the north, and relatively prompt ships can occasionally be found.

Base oils are very visible from Northeast Asia, with Taiwanese, Japanese and especially Korean cargoes looking to move in most directions.

Asia export trades are still pretty solid. Asia to Europe sees the most variety of grades, including base oils, and rates are firm. A 3,000 ton parcel of benzene from Southeast Asia to Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, for example, cost close to $130/t. Asia to U.S. is supposed to experience heavy benzene traffic in November, but so far, traders are staying away. Palm oil markets are steadily regaining demand, with Indian and Chinese requirements picking up. The Middle East Gulf-India region is steady, with both east and westbound requirements outstanding. Freights are stable, in spite of a relatively tight tonnage scenario.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found at www.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the London office SSYs Panos Giannoulis can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or +44 20 7977 7538 and in Singapore Jordi Maymi at +65 6854 7127.

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