SSY Base Oil Shipping Report

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The new month has brought about a complete change to the market. Both Europe and Asia experienced a dramatic slowdown in new trade, whereas the U.S. saw just a littlemore activity.

U.S. Gulf of Mexico
The supply of prompt tonnage in the U.S. Gulf is even tighter this week than last. At least six outsider vessels have been fixed down to the east coast of South America for example, wiping out much of the tonnage oversupply in the Gulf in one fell swoop. Several cargoes of base oils are among this lot, as well as a number of ethanol and chemical cargoes. Rates have lifted slightly as a result, taking the rate for a 5,000 ton parcel from Houston to Santos into the mid-to-high $60s/t.

U.S. Gulf-to-Caribbean has also seen a range of new cargo requirements which have filled out most of the available ships. Cargoes range from palm oil, through tallow and caustic to aromatics, sulphuric acid and clean petroleum products.

Transatlantic eastbound would appear to be a bit busier, and space is looking tighter. All the same, some of the rates heard on the styrene fixtures from Houston to Rotterdam would indicate that levels of mid-to-high $40s/t are achievable, which is a slight decrease from the previous week.

U.S. Gulf-to-Mediterranean has a bit of March space remaining unfixed, but there have been a number of extra ships slotted onto this route, taking biodiesel, caustic, ethylene dichloride and vinyl acetate monomer.

Far East routes are primarily running with contractual demand, and at least two owners confirm having filled their March tonnage this way. Nonetheless, there are a number of second-half March positions that have yet to fill. Owners freight ideas are so far unchanged, being in the mid $70s/t for 5,000 ton parcels from Houston to China, but if there is not a new wave of cargoes soon, owners may have to back-pedal.

Several ships have space on the U.S. Gulf-to-India-Middle East Gulf route later this month. Ethanol is potentially one of the main cargoes that may help them to fill, with talk of demand from the U.A.E. Alternatively, it may just bring on berth one or two additional ships as competition.

Europe
The slowdown on European coastal spot markets has continued this week. However, contractual volumes remain strong in the North Sea, keeping prompt tonnage fairly well employed and some of the rates being reported have been much higher than previously. For example, 4,000 tons of methanol/ETBE from Rotterdam and Delfzijl to Thames produced $102,000, compared to the more usual $80,000 to $85,000.

The Baltic is not especially busy with spot business, but prompt requirements can still be costly. Milder weather persisted through the previous week keeping the ice at bay. Base oil ports have been busy with transhipment cargoes directed to West Africa, and only Kaliningrad is reported to be hazardous due to the ice. The forecast for this week is for colder weather to arrive.

Southbound into the Mediterranean has seen a steady flow of business, including some larger parcels of base oils to Turkey and one cargo of 8,000 tons to Augusta. Rates are stable. Northbound trade is a bit thin, while intra-Mediterranean routes, after a busy start to the week became fairly quiet, with hardly any movements of the usual aromatics, biodiesel, methanol or caustic noted.

Transatlantic westbound is somewhat notional at the moment. There had been considerable interest in end February and early March space, and charterers were willing to spend very large sums to secure space in that period. Not all the cargoes were booked, and there remains interest in shipping pyrolysis gasoline, paraxylene, benzene and toluene, but the new month means commodity prices have changed, and there is greater reluctance to pay the same kinds of freight. However, space is limited until mid-second half March, and so a bit of a stalemate has emerged. Owners contend that the domestic European business yields a decent return presently and will only go on berth for the higher freights.

Europe-to-Asia has also been more subdued. Consequently, there are still pockets of March space, and with ships not completely full owners are taking no chances, and some rate reductions have been seen. From the west coast of Italy to Far East, 3,000 tons of aromatics paid $130/t, while 3,600 tons of paraffins from the west coast of Italy to Merak went for $116/t, the paraffins being for April shipment. An enquiry to ship base oils from the Black Sea to Singapore may be a trickier requirement however.

Northwest Europe to the Middle East Gulf and India is fairly settled and rates are unchanged.

Asia
Much quieter conditions have been experienced on domestic Asia services over the past week. Demand remains strong and probably in excess of tonnage supply, but the amount of new business reported is much less. As such, rates remain firm, but with gaps starting to appear in some of the fleet programmes within March, there may be the chance of some reductions in freight as we go through the week.

Base oil is one of the busier commodities within the region with a number of enquiries into China.

Asia export demand is quite strong, especially to Europe. Along with the usual acetates and acetic acid there are some cargoes that are not normally shipped, such as acetone, monoethylene glycol and certain grades of aromatics. Biodiesel has been less frequent to Europe due to the changes in import tariffs on Indonesian material. Instead, there is more palm oil being shipped as European users opt to produce more of their own biodiesel using palm oil as a feedstock.

The other spin-off has been a larger number of biodiesel fixtures to the U.S. Freights on these larger volumes are around $80 to $90/t to the U.S. Gulf and U.S. Atlantic coast.

Smaller parcels of base oils and chemicals from Korea to Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam are currently around $120/t for 3,000 ton parcels.

The trade from Asia into India-Middle East Gulf has also grown, possibly at the expense of material from the Middle East Gulf, with cargoes of aromatics, glycols, caustic, ethylene dichloride, styrene, acetic acid and base oils. Freight levels are firm and 5,000 ton cargoes from Korea to the west coast of India can cost as much as $60/t.

Cargo volumes are a bit thin eastbound from the Middle East Gulf and India, but rates have not yet altered as space is not that plentiful for prompt shipment. Westbound space is tight however, and rates remain firm.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found at www.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the London office SSYs Jordi Maymi can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or +44 20 7977 7560.

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