Tatyana Arbadzhi, marketing expert at the Moscow based Russian Automotive Market Research firm (RAMR), told the Engine Oil and Automobile Chemicals conference in November that new car sales in 2009 fell almost 50 percent compared to the year before. However, the volume of motor oil demand for new vehicles was surprisingly higher in 2009, compared to the year before and in 2007.
RAMRs survey covered the countrys vehicle fleet that is under warranty: passenger cars, light commercial and heavy duty vehicles that are up to three year old.
Lube demand for new vehicles in 2009 stood around 40,000 liters or roughly 7,000 liters more than the year before and around 14,000 liters up from 2007. Lube demand for new vehicles in 2010 was nearly 38,000 liters, while RAMR predicted that in 2011 it will fall to around 34,000 liters.
The 2009 peak in demand was a result of the record car sales during the pre-crisis years, from 2006 to 2008. It is likely that the crisis will have the effect of decreasing lube demand for new vehicles in 2011, a result of the decline in car sales two years ago, Arbadzhi observed. The economic crisis has had a delayed negative effect on the lube demand for new vehicles in Russia.
RAMR also found that foreign auto brands had a significant role in the new vehicles lube demand in 2009, as the record car sales in 2007 and 2008 were dominated by foreign models. Demand for lubes for new domestic cars is shrinking.
In 2009, for example, nearly 27,000 liters of lubes were filled in the foreign cars crankcases, while almost 14,000 liters were filled in the domestic cars, Arbadzhi noted. In 2010 their shares were around 26,000 liters and slightly above 11,000 liters of lube demand respectively. The market researcher expects 24,000 liters of lube demand for foreign brands under warranty and roughly 10,000 liters of lube demand for domestic brands under warranty in 2011.
It is obvious that lube demand for new domestic cars is going downward. Our survey observed that the majority of the foreign-branded vehicle owners prefer [premium] foreign brands of lubes for their new cars. The survey also found that biggest lube consumers in 2010 by brands were the models of domestic Lada, followed by the foreign brands of Chevrolet, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan and Renault.
Russia is one of the biggest automotive markets among the developing nations. In 2008 the country was on the verge to overtake Germany as Europes biggest. However, the global economic crisis slammed Russias booming car market as the sales in 2009 plummeted 49 percent, compared to the year before.
Prospects look brighter now, however. The countrys automobile industry is helped by the governments scrappage program – analogous to the United States cash-for-clunkers deal. Sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2010 stood at about 1.9 million, a growth of 30 percent compared to 2009, according to the Association of European Businesses in Russia.