Shell led in global market share of finished lubricants in 2009 for the fourth straight year, at 13.4 percent, reported consultancy Kline and Co., which estimated the global market at 35 million metric tons in 2009, down 8.4 percent from 2008.
Klines study, Global Lubricants 2009: Market Analysis and Assessment, found Shell stayed ahead of its largest competitor, ExxonMobil, with its estimated 11 percent market share in 2009, as well as BP, which had 7 percent. Rounding out the top five were Chevron, Total and Petro-China, each having a 5 percent global market share.
Asia-Pacific accounted for 39 percent of total global lubricant demand, while the United States held a 22 percent share. Geeta Agashe, vice president of Klines energy research practice, noted China and India fared much better than earlier predicted through the recession. These markets did not drop as much as predicted, and they also bounced back up very quickly, she pointed out. It was the same with Germany in Europe.
In China and India, the automotive, construction, power transmission, food processing, chemicals, and manufacturing industries all did well and drove internal lubricants demand. The Asia-Pacific region is going to be the growth engine for the lubricants industry, Agashe asserted.
Turkeys lubricant market offered a lot of hope, Agashe said, along with those in Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, Russias market was much more negatively impacted than was forecast.
To maintain its 2009 position, the U.S. needs to stabilize and recover from the economic downturns effects and adapt to the changing dynamic in the market. In the U.S., power transmission, food processing and agriculture industries fared better in 2009 as people have to eat and need power, Agashe pointed out. U.S. chemicals, construction, automotive production, primary metals, fabricated metals, trucking and marine all fared worse than in 2007 to 2008, according to Klines study.
The 8.4 percent decline in global lubricant demand from 2008 to 2009 followed a 2.6 percent decline experienced by the industry between 2007 and 2008. According to Kline, the keys to reviving the global market include the pace of recovery from the recession, the ability of market players to adapt to evolving demands for lubricant performance levels, and specifications dictated by original equipment manufacturers.
General Motors Dexos 1 engine oil specification, to be available globally for GMs 2011 model year vehicles, is one example of evolving OEM specifications. Agashe noted another is Toyota and Honda switching to 0W grades in North America for factory fill for 2011 vehicles. Industrial turbine manufacturers specifications are also leading to use of API Group II base oils in turbine oil formulations, she added.
Among lubricants segments, she noted metalworking fluids, international marine engine oils and process oils used in tires and synthetic rubber production are still struggling a fair amount.
For more information on the study, visit www.klinegroup.com/reports/y533.asp.