Consequently, the U.S. Gulf-to-Caribbean market has seen most of the regulars fill through to the end of the month. There are a number of prompt vessels in the region that could come on berth, but only against a larger cargo. U.S. Gulf to the east coast of South America presents a similar picture. For 5,000 tons of base oils from Houston to Santos it would probably be possible to fix space at $33/t.

Transatlantic eastbound is tight for January with just a few ships able to muster space. Rates have yet to strengthen however, and 3,000 to 4,000 tons of base oils from Houston to Rotterdam would cost between $50 and $55/t.

Europe
The cold weather that has swept through Europe brought a high level of demand for fuels products and has provided an alternative trade for the chemical fleet. Ice has become a factor too for ships wishing to trade in the Baltic, further cutting back on the supply of ships. Base oil loading ports are not greatly affected so far, although Klaipeda is on the edge of the ice-belt.

Trade into the Mediterranean is steady with space fairly easy to locate. The same can be said of northbound business from the Mediterranean to northwest Europe. As usual, there is a wide selection of ships available within the Mediterranean, and most cargoes are easily fixable.

There are more cargoes than usual within Europe for the time of year, but this is not expected to lead to any substantial strengthening of freight rates locally.

Transatlantic westbound is not particularly active, but open space is tightening due to a lot of contractual business being nominated this month, which in turn is causing spot freights to lift by the odd dollar or so. A 5,000 ton cargo of aromatics from Rotterdam to Houston is seeing levels push into the $30s/t, for example.

Europe to the Far East went through a slow patch over the holidays, the legacy of which is a cluster of ships proceeding through the Mediterranean with space to Asia. Further down the road, there is a collection of ships looking for completion cargoes towards end January and early February, which will accept freights of around $85/t for 5,000 tons of base oils from Rotterdam to principal scheduled ports in China. Freight rates into India are stable to firm, with 5,000 tons of base oils from Rotterdam to Mumbai likely to fetch between $60 and 65/t.

Asia
Asian coastal routes are slightly softer than the end of last year, although a new batch of aromatics cargoes may see things tighten again. Bad weather has caused congestion and delays on some inter-Far East routes.

Exports from Asia to Europe are steady. Cargoes such as biodiesel, palm oils and vinasses are looking for space into Europe, as are sulphuric acid cargoes to Chile, caustic to the United States and palm oils to India. Typical rates back to Rotterdam are in the mid $60s/t for 5,000 tons from Asia, but an unscheduled port could easily lift that rate into the $70s/t.

Shipping to the U.S. Gulf should yield more attractive figures in the mid $50s/t for the same 5,000 ton cargo.

Routes out of India and the Middle East Gulf are fairly busy, especially heading back out to Asia. Freights are showing some strength as there is a fair amount of competition for space on this leg. From the Middle East Gulf to the Far East 15,000 ton cargoes have been touching $40/t, with 5,000 ton parcels paying well into the $50s/t.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found at www.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached directly at research@ssy.co.uk or by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the U.S., SSYs Steve Rosenthal can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or +1 203-961-1566.