Energy Demand Forecast to Fall in Europe


The European Unions energy demand is projected to decline by 13 percent by 2040, while consumption in Africa and the Middle East is forecast to rise by 127 percent and 55 percent, respectively, according to the 2019 BP Energy Outlook.

The outlook projects that the EUs share in global energy demand will slip from 12.5 percent in 2017 to 8.3 percent in 2040 and that its energy demand will decrease by a compound annual rate of 0.6 percent over that period.

The company found that the regions energy mix will continue to transition, with oil and coal dropping from a combined 51 percent in 2017 to 32 percent in 2040. The share of natural gas should increase from 24 percent to 27 percent over that time.

Renewables are projected to nearly triple in their share from 10 percent in 2017 to 29 percent by 2040.

By 2040, wind is expected to represent about two thirds of total renewable energy in the EU.

In Africa, the outlook projects that energy consumption will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.6 percent over the next 21 years until its 2040 level is 127 percent higher than in 2017. During that span, the regions share in global energy demand will rise from 3.3 percent in 2017 to 5.7 percent in 2040, BP said.

Oils share of energy consumption is expected to decline from 44 percent in 2017 to 34 percent in 2040, while natural gass share is projected to edge up from 27 percent in 2017 to 28 percent in 2040.

Renewables will show the fastest growth rate out to 2040 at a compound annual rate of more than 10 percent. This would take renewables from 1 percent share of Africas total energy supply last year to 16 percent in 2040.

BP projects that Africas net energy exports will fall significantly even as its production rises, due to its own consumption growing strongly during the forecast period.

In the Middle East, the company projects that energy consumption will grow at a compound annual rate of just under 2 percent from 2017 to 2040, adding up to a 55 percent increase over that time frame. The regions share of global energy demand would rise from 6.6 percent to 7.8 percent.

The contribution of renewables, including biofuels, is expected to rise from a nearly nonexistent base in 2017 to about 9 percent in 2040.

Oils share of the regions energy consumption will fall from 47 percent to 34 percent in 2040.

The Middle East remains the largest oil-producing region and the second largest gas producer, representing 36 percent of global liquids production and 20 percent of global gas production.

The 2019 BP Energy Outlook documents may be downloaded from the BP website.

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