Gary Dudley, the survey’s statistician, estimates the 248 participants represent about half of the world’s grease plants and believes that the data paints a reasonable picture of global production from which business decisions can be made.

“Looking at the survey as a whole over the years, with companies coming and going, extrapolating the data is very reasonable approach,” Dudley told Lube Report.

According to the survey, China, the world’s largest grease maker, is experiencing substantial production decline. One European grease professional told Lube Report that this could be maturity in the Chinese market leading to more-grounded reporting of output rather than capacity in order to inflate figures.

Production could also be declining due to shifts in demand and technology drivers. Similar to lengthening drain intervals for engine oils, greases are lasting longer.

“We’re using better greases. We’re seeing less calcium and less lithium, but more lithium complexes, calcium sulfonates, poly ureas and anhydrous calcium,” Andreas Dodos, a senior chemical engineer at Greek grease maker Eldons and director of the European Lubricating Grease Institute, told Lube Report.

Dudley agrees, adding that customers are becoming more aware of grease optimization and minimizing losses.

“Over the last decade, I think we have seen an increased interest in companies regarding grease lube programs, similar to what we have seen for decades regarding oil lubricant program,” he said.

Regionally, China remains the leading grease producer despite reporting a sharp drop. Dodos believes this could be largely driven by improved survey participation.

Africa and the Middle East showed an increase in production, attributed mainly to data corrections rather than actual volume growth, noted the survey. Europe posted a modest decline, which was also due to adjustments in regional data rather than a substantial change in output. North America continued to see a decrease in production despite greater participation.

The survey indicates a gradual transition away from conventional base oils in favor of synthetic options especially in China, North America and Europe. Although conventional base oils declined marginally, they are still the commonest used by far. Bio-based oils posted a second consecutive annual decline, reversing a previous upward trend. Synthetic base oil use continues to rise.

Looking at thickeners, simple and complex lithium greases continued to decline in market share. Use of calcium sulfonate grew year on year due to gains in North America, China and Europe. Anhydrous calcium greases declined with the drop concentrated in China. Calcium hydrated greases increased in production, though historical data trends remain inconsistent. Polyurea greases, which had shown growth in recent years, declined slightly due to lower production levels, especially in China and Southeast Asia.

“If we didn’t trust the survey, we wouldn’t participate. The fact that it’s been going on for so many years and that it’s got critical mass says to me that the industry trusts the results,” Dodos said.

Dudley assures companies hesitating to participate that the NLGI survey organization has a long history of protecting sensitive company data.

“It’s a great tool to see market shifts so you can make business decisions on how to change or improve you grease offer and grow your business.”