An economic slowdown in several countries has affected consumer spending, and this has impacted may products including lubricants, particularly in key markets such as China. The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China appeared close to a reprieve, as Chinese and American trade negotiators announced a framework of a deal on tariffs, with China likely to delay export controls on rare earth minerals for a year. U.S. President Trump had threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports on Nov. 1 when China tightened its control over rare earth exports.

Trump was expected to meet China’s president Xi Jinping this week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea to continue trade discussions. Trump has also planned a tour of several Asian countries to discuss trade and shore up influence in the region. America’s commitments to its allies and partners have been called into question, given that recent policies have bred resentment over tariffs and uncertainty over the future of U.S. troops in Asia. “Unlike the Cold War, the battlegrounds for power and influence are centered not only on troops and warships, but also on supply chains, ports and data centers,” The New York Times reported about Trump’s trip to Asia.

Group I
The Group I segment showed a tighter supply and demand ratio for the light grades, with the heavy-viscosity cuts displaying some length due to seasonal patterns and hefty production levels. Bright stock had avoided downward price adjustments for most of the year, but even this grade succumbed to downward pressure because of mounting supplies. Availability of competitively-priced Group II heavy grades was weighing on Group I SN500 indications as well.

Offers of flexibag quantities of Southeast Asian products, mainly of Thai origin, surfaced during the week but elicited lukewarm buying interest as numbers were deemed high. Thai Lube has recently offered small volumes of SN150, SN500 and bright stock but required the bright stock to be co-loaded with the SN500. It could not be confirmed whether this was still the case.

Chinese spot supplies, largely comprised of heavy cuts from one producer, have also become available, although most of the material was expected to make its way to India. China typically suffers from a shortage of the heavy grades, but the spot supply was probably feasible because the Chinese producer has been running its plant at top rates and this coincided with a period of softer demand due to the start of the winter season as well as an economic slowdown in the country.

China released key economic data this week, which showed that China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in a year last quarter, registering a 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth for the first nine months of 2025, and a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, according to Trading Economics.com. Retail sales growth slowed to 3% in September, and fixed asset investment was down 0.5% in the first nine months, impacted by a weak real estate sector. Industrial production rose 6.5% in September – a better performance for this sector than anticipated. Whether the trend will continue in the fourth quarter remained to be seen, as the trade dispute with the U.S. has dampened growth. The Chinese government was likely to keep implementing stimulus measures emphasizing the need to boost consumption while tackling external challenges such as the current U.S. tariffs.

Domestic Group I producers have adjusted bright stock ex-tank prices down because of lengthening supplies, while importers and distributors have also revised their prices down to entice buyers. Domestic prices of other Group I grades were heard to have remained steady week-on-week.

In India, refiners were keeping an eye on the latest developments related to Russian crude oil exports as India is currently one of the largest Russian oil importers. On Oct. 22, the U.S. imposed sanctions on two key Russian refiners, Rosneft and Lukoil, to pressure Russia to stop its attacks on Ukraine. India’s largest private oil refiner, Reliance Industries, was reportedly halting its purchases of Russian crude, while other Indian refiners were also looking to cut back on Russian oil purchases, raising hopes that this would expedite a U.S.-India trade deal.

Base oil buying appetite was expected to grow in India following the Diwali holidays, with domestic suppliers aiming at capturing business by offering competitive values.

Heavy grade import prices were under pressure given that demand for these grades typically weakens during the colder months in the Northern Hemisphere because many downstream applications require lighter formulations and oversupply grows. Import prices for the SN150 were steady as consumption levels were stronger and supplies were more limited, but buyers were also opting for acquiring more domestic supplies to avoid price risks.

The planned one-month turnaround at Chennai Petroleum’s Group I plant in Chennai that was expected to take place this month was likely to tighten domestic supplies as well, although stocks appeared to be sufficient to meet contract requirements. No further details about the turnaround were forthcoming.

Group II
Along similar lines as the Group I base oils, the light grades within the Group II segment have enjoyed healthier demand and a more balanced supply scenario, supporting fairly steady pricing. On the other hand, the high-viscosity cuts tend to see weaker consumption, lengthening supplies and prices coming under pressure in the last quarter. Last week, discussions in India were muted because of the Diwali holidays, and buying interest may be further depressed by expectations of increased supplies becoming available from the U.S. and South Korea.

In China, buyers were trying to make do with contractual volumes and only entered the market to secure smaller cargoes. Buyers and sellers prefer to end the year with leaner inventories and consumers therefore limit their orders, which leads to heftier inventories and exerts pressure on prices, particularly as the Group II capacity in China has outpaced demand ever since several Group II base oil plants were built over the last decade.

Sources noted that a Shandong producer has planned a forty-five day turnaround this month and has not been actively offering cargoes. This has driven offers from other domestic producers up, particularly as there are rumblings that a second producer will be shutting its plant down for maintenance in the next few days. For the time being, it appeared that there were plentiful supplies of imported Group II grades and this has undermined the support for higher offers from domestic suppliers.

In India, just like in other markets, the heavier grades came under pressure because of more muted demand and ample inventories. Prices for imported Group II 500N underwent downward adjustments of around $10/t week-on-week on a CFR India basis, according to reports.

Additional pressure came from expectations of more cargoes being offered by U.S. refiners into India over the next few weeks as suppliers try to lower inventories before year-end. A turnaround at a key U.S. facility had prompted some of the producers to hold back on fresh offers until there were clear indications that no domestic shortages would occur.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s Group II supply was not expected to be affected by Group III expansion work at the Haldia refinery but could see reduced availability as the producer plans to perform maintenance before the start-up of the expanded facilities near the end of the year. It could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.

Group III
Group III prices were largely stable, as supply appeared to be adequate to meet current requirements, although the 4 centiStoke and 8 cSt grades were starting to lengthen in some markets such as China. Supplies from South Korea and the Middle East continued to flow into various destinations in Asia, but it was heard that a South Korean supplier was not participating in spot business because it was trying to meet contractual obligations first.

SK-Pertamina was heard to have shut down its plant in Dumai, Indonesia, for unplanned maintenance following a fire at the associated refinery on Oct. 1, although the base oil unit had not been directly affected by the fire. The shutdown was expected to last one month, but sources did not anticipate supplies to term customers to be curtailed, although the outage may reduce spot availability in the region.

In China, domestic producers continued to offer competitive prices so as to maintain or increase market share versus imports. Ample availability of the Group III 4 cSt and 8 cSt grades has pushed prices down, with domestic indications for these grades slipping this week.

In India, several offers appeared to have surfaced and the perception that there was more than enough product available exerted downward pressure on prices. Demand was generally expected to hold steady, following a small uptick in motor oil consumption ahead of the Diwali holidays, when many people travel and prepare their vehicles for long journeys by performing maintenance. The holidays had brought increased consumer spending, including sales of passenger cars and motorcycles, also boosting consumption of factory-fill lubricants. The government had offered an additional incentive by lowering the Goods and Services Tax in late September.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia in the fourth quarter, but no updates about the status of the plant were forthcoming.

While most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

• Approximately 3,000-4,000 metric tons of base oils were discussed for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to India in late October.
• A 1,800-ton lot was expected to be shipped from Onsan to Huizhou, China, in late November.
• A 1,200-ton parcel was quoted for shipment from Onsan to Merak between Nov. 10-20.
• A 900-ton cargo was on the table for lifting in Onsan and delivery in Singapore in mid-Nov.
• A 1,100-ton lot was expected to be shipped from Onsan to Nagoya, Japan, in early Nov.
• A 4,000-ton parcel was mentioned for shipment from Rayong, Thailand, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, between Nov. 5-10.
• A 2,100-ton cargo was discussed for lifting in Yokkaichi/Kainan, Japan, to Hong Kong in mid-Nov.

Production

The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef (Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co.) has scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. 
• Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September or October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity estimated at 60,000 t/y.
• IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
• In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
• Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May–June) and Mizushima B (Feb–May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
• Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
• CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
• Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to late February/early March.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock.
• Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year, but there was no confirmation whether the plant had been shut down this month.
• Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled a turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
• BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last throughout August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
• GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
• An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
• Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
• Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
• Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
• Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III

• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on Oct. 1 but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for a one-month maintenance after the fire, but supplies were not expected to be affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
  Indian Oil Corp. was expected to complete an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in the fourth quarter, but it could not be confirmed whether the start-up was on schedule.
• SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
• Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for two-three weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
• Bapco began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
• Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
• Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures edged up in early trading on Monday after U.S. and Chinese officials reached an agreement over an initial framework for a trade deal, easing fears that tariffs and export constraints between the world’s top two oil consumers would hamper global economic growth.

• Brent December 2025 futures were trading at $66.21 per barrel on Oct. 27, up from $61.10/bbl for front-month futures on Oct. 20 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for November 2025 settled at $66.87/bbl on Oct. 24, up from $61.34/bbl for front-month futures on Oct. 17 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were largely stable as suppliers tried to maintain offer levels, with only the heavy grades experiencing small downward adjustments on account of weaker demand against plentiful supplies.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 assessed at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 hovering at $980/t-$1,020/t
Bright stock prices heard slightly lower by $10/t at $1,360/t-$1,400/t

Group II 150N was holding at $820/t-$860/t
500N was assessed at $1,020/t-$1,060/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 steady at $680/t-$720/t
SN500 holding at $810/t-$850/t
Bright stock prices edged down by $10/t to $1,200/t-$1,240/t

Group II 150N gauged at $710/t-$750/t
500N slipped by $10/t to $840/t-$880/t

Group III grades steady to softer
4 cSt holding at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt at $1,070/t-$1,110/t
8 cSt was adjusted down by $10/t to $920/t-$960/t on lengthening supplies

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.