The company projects demand for all energy types worldwide will rise at an average annual rate of 1 percent a year from 2010 to 2040.

Oil will remain the top energy source, supplying 32 percent of the worlds energy demand in 2040, down slightly from 34 percent in 2010. Natural gas will be the fastest-growing energy source, with global consumption rising 63 percent from 2010 to 2040.

By 2025, coal will account for 25 percent of world energy demand, followed by natural gas at 24 percent.

From 2010 to 2040, nuclear energys share of total energy demand is expected to grow to 8 percent, up from 5 percent, driven by the need to address energy security and climate concerns. Growth is strongest in Asia-Pacific, including China and India.

Wind, solar and biofuels are projected to account for 4 percent of energy supplies in 2040, up from 1 percent in 2010. Solar and wind will grow briskly in the power generation sector, while biofuels expand modestly in transportation, supported by government policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions, ExxonMobil projected.

The company noted that improved efficiency is one factor behind an overall slowdown in global energy demand growth. While global demand for energy is projected to rise by about 35 percent from 2010 to 2040, that is less than half the growth rate seen during the previous 30-year period from 1980 to 2010, ExxonMobil said. In addition, we estimate that three quarters of this increased energy demand will occur in the first half of The Outlook period (2010 to 2025).

Transportation

Global energy demand for transportation will grow by 40 percent from 2010 to 2040, the company forecast, though the needs will vary significantly by country. China and India together will account for about half of this increase.

The number of light-duty vehicles in the world – cars, pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles – is expected to more than double, from 825 million in 2010 to about 1.7 billion in 2040. Yet because cars themselves will become far more fuel-efficient, we expect global energy demand for light-duty vehicles to be little changed as demand shifts regionally away from the [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development]. The 34 OECD nations include countries in North America and Europe.

China is expected to account for about 40 percent of the global fleet increase. Other developing nations with strong fleet growth include India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia.

The fuel economy of the average light-duty vehicle on the worlds roads is projected to reach 45 mpg in 2040, compared to about 25 mpg in 2010.

The outlook projects hybrid vehicles to grow from 1 percent of new-car sales in 2010 to nearly 50 percent of sales by 2040, accounting for about one third of the global fleet that year. This is significant because hybrid cars can provide about a 30 percent fuel economy benefit compared to conventional gasoline cars and are expected to be cost-competitive by 2025.

Modest gains are expected over the years for plug-in hybrid and full electric cars but penetration is expected to remain low due to their high cost and functional constraints compared to alternatives. Electric vehicles are expected to account for only about 5 percent of the global fleet in 2040. Even though battery costs are likely to fall in coming decades, electric vehicles will continue to face significant challenges as other alternatives also improve, ExxonMobil stated.

In every region, commercial transportation – heavy-duty vehicles, marine, aviation and rail – is driving the growth in energy for transportation.

Total energy demand for heavy-duty vehicles is expected to rise by about 65 percent from 2010 to 2040, driven by economic expansion and the associated increased movement of goods.

Emissions

Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to be a bit more than 6 billion metric tons higher in 2040, at 36.9 billion tons, compared to 30.7 billion tons in 2010. In the OECD, the company expects such emissions will decline by 22 percent from 12.8 billion tons in 2010 to 10 billion tons in 2040. Progress on curbing energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2040 will be led by OECD nations, as energy demand trends lower and a shift to lower-carbon fuels proceeds, the company noted. Emissions already are declining in most OCED countries.

In non OECD nations, emissions are projected to grow 50 percent from 17.9 billion tons in 2010 to 26.9 billion tons in 2040.

In North America, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decrease 0.7 percent from 6.5 billion tons in 2010 to 5.2 billion tons in 2040. Asia-Pacifics carbon dioxide emissions will likely rise 42 percent from 13.2 billion tons in 2010 to 18.9 billion tons in 2025, and then remain at that figure in 2040.

The 2015 edition of The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 is posted on ExxonMobils web site here.