Valero resumed posting prices on Monday, Nov. 12, largely mirroring the ExxonMobil adjustments reported a week ago. Since its last postings in late August, Valeros Group I VP 100 moved down 7 cents/gal, VP 500 and 700 went up by 15 cents/gal, and bright stock rose 17 cents/gal. Valero did not adjust its VP 165 or its Group II VPN 150, with those posted prices remaining at Aug. 22’slevels.

Yesterday Motiva raised its Group II Star 6 220 and Star 12 600 by 10 cents/gal, and Group II+ Star 5+ by 20 cents/gal. Motiva did not change its Star 3 70 or Star 4 105 postings.

ConocoPhillips adjusted Group II postings effective today, moving up its N70 and N80 by 5 cents/gal, N225 by 10 cents/gal and N600 by 15 cents/gal. Its N110 posting remains unchanged.

ConocoPhillips will also increase its Group III Ultra-S oils by 13 cents/gal today. On behalf of SK E&P, Lithcon announced plans to lift posted prices of all Group III Yubase grades by 13 cents/gal, also effective today.

Chevron will raise it West Coast Group II posted prices effective tomorrow, as follows: N100 goes up 5 cents/gal, N220 rises 10 cents/gal and N600 jumps 15 cents/gal. Chevrons N110 remains unchanged.

Also tomorrow Sunoco will increase its SN250 posting by 10 cents/gal. This move follows the companys Nov. 1 announcement raising SN 500 and bright stock prices by 15 cents/gal,which set off the current round of posted price hikes.

Nynas will boost its naphthenic grades 15 cents/gal tomorrow. Cross Oil said that it plans to raise all pale oils and process oils by 15 cents/gal effective Nov. 19. The Nynas and Cross increases followed earlier announcements by San Joaquin and Calumet, also outlining increases of 15 cents/gal.

Base oil market activity is described as steady, with some uptick in demand despite recent price hikes, suppliers said. Light vis paraffinic grades are said to be amply available, while mid and heavy vis oils are in better balance. In some cases, and depending on supplier, overall availability is tighter across the board.

On the crude oil front, prices continue to swing in extreme directions. While it seems like oils recent attempt to break $100 per barrel has come to an end, industry watchers said a steep fall is unlikely, and another shot at $100/bbl could be just around the corner.

Several analysts thought it would be inevitable for the price of a barrel of NYMEX crude to top $100 last week. It got close and peaked over the $98/bbl level. However, since then prices have drifted lower.

Some traders believe that if prices dont reach the $100/bbl level mid-week, then it is more likely that crude pricing will lose its upward momentum and head back to the $90/bbl level by week’s end.

The December front-month contract expires on Friday. Prices usually fluctuate widely the day a contract expires, as those players who do not want to take physical delivery of oil sell, and commercial users like refineries and airlines take the opportunity to buy, industry experts said.

Also pulling prices lower are reports which indicate that OPEC may raise production, a stabilizing but still shaky U.S. dollar, and the stock market declines of the last few days with associated fears of a slowing economy.

Even if crude values sink to the high $80s, some analysts said this is not a real bargain, considering it traded at $79/bbl just a month ago and under $50/bbl in the earlier part of the year.

Still, there is a lot of uncertainty among market experts (including hedge-fund managers, traders, economic advisors and energy analysts) over how high or how low oil prices may go. It is not an exact science, andmany global factors can push prices in either direction quickly.

At the close of the Tuesday NYMEX session, light sweet crude ended the day at $91.17 per barrel, a loss of $5.53/bbl from the Nov. 6 settlement at $96.70/bbl.

Carolyn L. Green, based in Houston, can be reached directly at carolynlgreen@gmail.com.

Historic U.S. posted base oil prices and WTI and Brent crude spot prices are available for purchase in Excel format.