Demand for motorcycle engine oil will grow faster than other finished lubricants over the next five years, even as authorities push for electrification in major two-wheeler markets, industry consultancy Kline & Co predicts.
Asian countries such as India and Indonesia account for tens of millions of new motorcycle registrations annually. These bikes are heavily used for commuting, deliveries and ride hailing, requiring frequent oil changes. In the West, motorcycles are increasingly used for leisure, driving demand for premium synthetic and semi-synthetic lubricants.
In 2024, global demand for motorcycle engine oil was about 2 million to 3 million metric tons, with Asia-Pacific accounting for 75%, Kline says. Demand is forecast to rise 1.2% annually through 2029, compared with 0.9% for heavy-duty diesel motor oil and 0.2% for passenger car motor oil.
India, home to the world’s largest two-wheeler fleet, led global demand last year, followed by Indonesia, China and the Philippines. Indian demand is expected to keep growing despite electrification, while China and Vietnam are seeing slower growth as e-scooters gain ground.
China’s internal combustion engine two-wheeler production is declining due to urban restrictions, emissions standards and a shift toward electric scooters, said Sushmita Dutta, project manager in the energy practice at Kline & Co. Electric two-wheelers’ penetration rate was about 25% in 2024 and is projected to reach 50% in 2029. In Vietnam, government incentives are accelerating electric adoption, and declines in combustion-engine bikes are expected after 2025.
The global motorcycle engine oil market value is rising four to five times faster than volume, reaching $10 billion to $15 billion. Growth is driven by a shift to synthetic lubricants, regulatory changes and demand for premium viscosity grades. Inflation and the availability of low-cost lubricants, however, have slowed adoption in price-sensitive markets, Dutta said.
Semi-synthetics now account for more than 45% of premium motorcycle lubricant sales in emerging markets, up from 28% in 2019, according to P Market Research. Globally, the synthetic motorcycle oil market was valued at $2.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $4.3 billion by 2030, according to Verified Market Reports.
The motorcycle oil market is highly fragmented. The top five companies – Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Pertamina – hold slightly less than one-third of global share.