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The Worlds Awash in Crude Oil

As we were preparing this issue for print, Reuters reported that OPEC members had failed to agree to an oil production ceiling at a meeting in early December. The sticking point was Irans refusal to consider any production curbs until it restores its output to pre-sanctions levels.

This sets the stage for more price cuts in an already oversupplied market. The Reuters report noted that oil prices have dropped by more than half over the past 18 months to a fraction of what most OPEC members need to balance their budgets.

Some experts predict prices could fall to as low as U.S. $20 per barrel. In addition, as the world produces more oil than it consumes, the industry runs the risk of running out of storage capacity in the first quarter of 2016.

Prior to the meeting, Iran said it would raise supply by at least 1 million barrels per day – or 1 percent of global supply – after sanctions are lifted. Theyve since lowered that figure to 500,000 barrels per day. But the world is already producing up to 2 million barrels per day more than it consumes.

It remains to be seen what this scenario means for the cost of base oils on the global market. But the downward pressure is likely to continue well into 2016.

Weve put together an interesting issue for you this month. Sea-Lands Robert Stubbs reviews the effects of globalization on the additives and raw materials used in industrial lubricants. Middle East correspondent Mark Townsend reports on how global economic conditions might affect base oil suppliers in the Middle East. Boris Kamchev gives us a sneak preview of Shells Project M urban concept car and the implications for engine lubes.

Richard Beercheck

Dick@LubesnGreases.com

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