Freedonia projects motor vehicle aftermarket lubricants demand to grow 1.8 percent per year to 16.2 million metric tons in 2015, while it expects manufacturing market lubricants demand to increase 3.5 percent per year to 14 million tons in 2015.

Automotive manufacturing is a key market, particularly with demand and production levels in North America remaining low in 2010 relative to historical levels, and with strong growth expected in more developing economies, Freedonia analyst Ned Zimmerman told Lube Report. The improved outlook for consumers in developed markets by 2015, along with continued growth in China, India and Brazil, will also support generally healthy gains in lubricant demand for nondurable goods manufacturing.

Overall, Freedonias study projects world lubricant demand will increase 2.6 percent per year to 41.7 million metric tons in 2015, after having increased only 0.2 percent per year from 2005 to 2010. Freedonia expects strong economic growth as countries continue to recover from the impact of the global economic recession in 2009.

Freedonia expects the fastest increases in overall lubricants demand to occur in Asia, followed by the Africa and Middle East region, and Central and South America. Those regions will benefit from above-average increases in their motor vehicle park in addition to strong economic growth.

Growth in motor vehicle lubricants demand is expected in developing Asian countries, particularly in China and India. The trend toward increased drain intervals, influenced in part by the growing availability of high-performance synthetic lubricants, will result in declining demand in Western Europe and North America.

While the trends towards lengthening drain intervals and the increased use of synthetics have not shifted, the pace of change for both of these areas has picked up more than we would have expected two years ago, Zimmerman observed.

Healthy advances in Eastern Europe are expected, reflecting a rebound in the regions industrial output. Zimmerman said the growth areas in Eastern Europe are expected to be durable goods manufacturing (including motor vehicles), agriculture and natural resource extraction (mining, natural gas and petroleum production).

The study projects engine oils will continue to account for the greatest share of lubricant demand going forward. That reflects the importance of transportation in an increasingly global economy, from both a consumer and a commercial perspective, according to Freedonia.

The study suggests hydraulic fluids will post the fastest growth through 2015 due to a combination of increased demand in manufacturing operations and strong global growth in natural resource extraction industries such as mining and oil and natural gas production. Zimmerman suggested healthy global economic growth will also sustain strong commodity demand, which will in turn lead to healthy gains for lubricants in those industries. Because they are so large, even moderate increases in exploration and production can contribute to a significant jump in volume demand, he noted.

The 486-page World Lubricants study is $6,100 from Cleveland-based The Freedonia Group. For more information, visit www.freedoniagroup.com.