The European Unions energy demand is projected to decline by 11 percent by 2040, Africas energy consumption is expected to jump by 128 percent, and the Middle Easts energy consumption will grow 54 percent, according to the 2018 BP Energy Outlook.
The outlook projects that the EUs share in global energy demand will slide from 37 percent in 2016 to 26 percent in 2040. The regions energy demand will decrease by a compound annual rate of 0.5 percent to 2040. The EU is the only region expected to experience both a decline in consumption and production, the outlook stated.
The company said the EUs energy mix continues to evolve, with coal and oil dropping from a combined 52 percent in 2016 to 32 percent by 2040. The share of natural gas increases from 24 to 27 percent over that time.
Renewables are projected to triple in their share from 9 percent in 2016 to 27 percent by 2040. Leading the growth will be wind and solar. By 2040, the EU is anticipated to meet 15 percent of its energy demand by wind, with solar and biomass accounting for 5 percent each.
Africa is expected to more than double its energy consumption out to 2040. The regions energy demand is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.5 percent out to 2040, more than three times faster than the global average. This reflects increasing levels of industrialization and productivity, BP said in its outlook.
While oils share of energy consumption is expected to decline from 42 percent in 2016 to 35 percent in 2040, natural gass share is projected to increase from 28 percent to 30 percent.
Renewables will show the fastest growth rate out to 2040, at 13 percent CAGR, with solar power increasing at 19 percent.
Although Africa is projected to remain a significant exporter of gas, oil and coal, its overall energy exports will decline, the outlook said, driven by a sharp reduction in the regions oil surplus.
The outlook estimates the Middle Easts energy consumption will increase by 54 percent by 2040, with natural gas representing almost 60 percent of that growth. Oil and coal both lose share at the expense of gas and non-fossil fuels, the company stated.
The contribution of non-fossil fuels is expected to rise from 1 percent of the regions consumption in 2016 to 8 percent in 2040, led by strong growth in solar and wind (each over 20 percent CAGR) and nuclear (15 percent). Solar will still only represent about 4 percent of the regions energy demand by 2040.
Oils share of the regions consumption will fall from 47 percent to 37 percent.
The Middle East remains the largest oil producer and the second largest gas producer, accounting for over 34 percent of global liquids production and 20 percent of gas production by 2040, the company said in its outlook.
The 2017 BP Energy Outlook documents may be downloaded from the BP website.