MOSCOW – Russias economy is forecast to continue slowly growing, and that should be enough to spur motor oil demand to increase at a compound annual rate of 1.6 percent through 2023, according to a market research firm.
An official from Russian Automotive Market Research told RPIs Global Lubricants Week 2018 conference here on Oct. 10 that the nations passenger cars consumed about 335,000 metric tons of motor oils from July 2017 to July 2018, while light commercial vehicles consumed 139,000 tons of motor oils during the same period. By 2023 the passenger car oil consumption is expected to rise to almost 357,000 tons, and light vehicle engine oil consumption is projected to rise to 152,000 tons. The consultancy projects motor oil consumption by buses to rise from 27,000 tons in 2018 to 30,200 tons by 2023.
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Motor oil consumption in the heavy-duty commercial vehicle segment will also see a rise of about 9.6 percent [total] in the next five years, said Tatyana Arbadzhi, head of the Ramr. This rise will be based on the recovery of the Russian economy and more consumers confidence in the next five years, she said.
The International Monetary Fund estimated recently that Russian gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.7 percent during the first half of 2018, and government agency Rosstat forecast growth of 1.9 percent for the second half. IMF predicts the economy will expand 1.5 percent in 2019, without assuming benefits from reforms. The IMF predicts inflation of 4 percent in 2019.
The nations economy shrank approximately 3 percent in 2015 and 2016 before expanding 0.3 percent in 2015 and 1.5 percent last year.
Russia had 44.4 million passenger cars on the road in 2018, and the consultancy expects this number to increase by 7 percent to 47.5 million vehicles by 2023. Sixty-one percent of todays vehicle population consists of foreign branded vehicles, and the consultancy expects that percent will increase to 67 percent by 2023.
The top 10 on-road passenger vehicle brands in Russia are the Russian Lada, Japanese Toyota and Nissan, South Korean Hyundai and Kia, French Renault, the American Chevrolet, the German Volkswagen and the Japanese Mitsubishi.
Ladas consumed far more motor oil than any other brand of car – 77,000 tons in the year ended July 31, compared to 29,000 tons for Toyotas and 16,000 tons for Nissans, Arbadzhi said.