Europes top energy source is projected to remain oil through 2040, while biomass and waste will continue to lead in Africa, and natural gas will provide a larger share of energy in the Middle East, according to the 2018 edition of ExxonMobils global energy outlook.
In 2016, Europe accounted for almost 14 percent of global energy demand, which totaled 552 quadrillion British thermal units, and the Middle East and Africa accounted for about 6 percent each. By 2040 Africa will be responsible for almost 9 percent of global demand, which is projected to reach 681 quadrillion BTUs, while Europe and the Middle East register 10 percent and 7 percent, respectively.
Demand for all energy types in Europe is forecasted to decline 9 percent from 2016 to 2040 to 68 quadrillion BTUs.
Oil is projected to remain the top energy source in the region, accounting for almost 34 percent of its demand in 2040, down from 36 percent in 2016. Natural gas is expected to retain its 24 percent share of regional demand, while coal declines from almost 15 percent to a little more than 5 percent.
While the shares of nuclear (12 percent), biomass/waste (8 percent), and hydroelectric (3 percent) energy demand are all expected to remain unchanged out to 2040, other types of renewables are expected to increase from about 4 percent to 9 percent.
In Africa, energy demand is expected to jump 77 percent to 59 quadrillion BTUs by 2040.
The amount of energy that biomass/waste produces for the region is expected percent to rise from 15 quadrillion BTUs in 2016 to 20 quadrillion BTUs in 2040, but the categorys share of regional demand is projected to decline from about 45 percent to 35 percent. ExxonMobil noted that people in Africa and Asia-Pacific still rely on biomass. More than 2.5 billion people worldwide lack access to modern energy for cooking, and about 1 billion people lack access to electricity, the company stated.
Oils share of African energy demand was projected to rise from 24 percent to 27 percent, while the amount of energy that the region derives from coal was forecast to increase only 3 percent to 6 quadrillion BTUs.
The study predicted that energy demand in the Middle East will swell 40 percent by 2040 to 48 quadrillion BTUs. It found that abundant natural gas supplies give manufacturers a competitive edge in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Latin America, and it noted that climate policies boost natural gas demand in mature markets.
Natural gas and oil are the dominant sources of energy in the Middle East. Natural gas will expand its lead as the top energy source in the region from 47 percent to 54 percent, while oil will slide from 47 percent to 42 percent, the study predicted.
The company projects global transportation-related energy demand to increase by close to 30 percent out to 2040. At the same time, total distance traveled per year by cars, sport utility vehicles and light trucks will increase about 60 percent, reaching about 23 trillion kilometers. As personal mobility increases, average fuel economy for new light-duty vehicles will rise from about 13 km per liter to close to 21 km/l.
The growth in transportation energy demand is expected to account for about 60 percent of the growth in liquids fuel demand. Liquids demand for light-duty vehicles is expected to be relatively flat to 2040, reflecting better fleet fuel economy and significant growth in electric cars.
ExxonMobil noted that global carbon dioxide emissions rose close to 40 percent from 2000 to 2016 despite a roughly 10 percent decline in emissions in Europe and North America. Combined, such emissions in Europe and North America are projected to fall about 15 percent by 2040, compared to 2016.
Europes carbon dioxide transmissions are forecasted to decline 25 percent to 2.9 billion tons, while the Middle Easts rise 7 percent to 2.6 billion tons and Africas increase 90 percent to 2.4 billion tons.
The 2018 edition of The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 is posted on ExxonMobils web site here.