Trend changes in the automotive market will lead to a fall [of] 1.7 percent compared to last year, to 563,000 kiloliters, the PAJ said in a report. Although the Japanese economy is expected to remain firm, the trend of falling volume of lubricants-per-vehicle consumption is expected to continue. In addition, a consumption tax hike scheduled to take effect next April will likely lead to a decline in domestic sales of automobiles, which will also erode lube demand.

For the shipping sector, lubricant consumption fell last year by 4.1 percent, to 93,000 kiloliters, due to a fall in demand from large ships and foreign vessels. The number of container ships is expected to increase this year, thanks to a recovery in industrial output and a weaker Japanese yen, which is boosting exports. Domestic lubricant consumption of marine lubes is likely to remain unchanged, at 93,000 kiloliters, the association said.