Chinas demand for heavy-duty motor oils for trucks is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.6 percent through 2022, thanks primarily to an anticipated boost in the countrys heavy truck population, according to a new study by Kline & Co.
At present, service-fill demand for heavy-duty oils sits between 1.5 million and 1.6 million tons. Buses and construction vehicles account for 25 percent of that demand, while trucks account for the remaining 75 percent. More than half of the latter volume is used by heavy trucks.
These trucks have larger sump sizes and have more frequent oil changes as they travel longer distances compared to other trucks, said Sushmita Dutta, a project manager at the consultancy, which is based in Parsippany, New Jersey, United States.
Kline did not provide specific numbers on Chinas heavy-duty vehicle population but predicted that population will grow at a compound annual rate between 5 percent and 7 percent over the next five years.
Kline also predicts that synthetic engine oils will make significant inroads with the overall truck category. Since truck drivers are quite knowledgeable and price-sensitive, synthetic oil is still in the very early stage of market entry in China, said Steven Zhang, project manager at Kline, in a press release. We suspect growth in synthetics demand in [the] truck channel to be driven by long oil drain interval trucks, Dutta added in an interview.
Heavy-duty oils are primarily sold through independent workshops; however, those workshops are threatened by the growing popularity of online sales channels. Truck owners can purchase the oils at lower prices from online channels, which Kline anticipates will negatively impact the independent workshops.