Oil Change Sales on the Rise

Sales by oil change and lubrication shops in the United States reached $6.3 billion in 2018, up 4 percent from $6.1 billion the previous year, according to a report jointly published by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association.

The report, known as the channel forecast model, includes sales histories and forecasts for a variety of automotive aftermarket categories. The report forecasts sales by such shops to grow by a compound annual rate of 3.6 percent from $6.1 billion in 2017 to $7.2 billion in 2022. The sales grew at a compound annual rate of 3.8 percent from $5.2 billion in 2013 to $6.3 billion in 2018. This is in line with the overall automotive care industry CAGR from 2013 to 2018 of 3.8 percent, and 3.4 percent CAGR projected through 2022.

Average sales per oil and lube shop in the United States reached $861,800 in the United States in 2018, up 4.8 percent from $822,682 in 2017. Over the five-year period from 2013 to 2018, the average sales per oil and lube shop grew by a 4.2 percent compound annual rate from $702,557 in 2013.

Citing a preliminary estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the channel forecast found that the number of oil change and lubrication shops in the United States stood at 7,301 in 2018. Thats down 0.7 percent from 7,354 in 2017. The number declined by a compound annual rate of 0.4 percent from 2010 - when it reached 7,518 - through 2018.

The channel forecast model follows the North American Industry Classification System, which defines automotive oil change and lubrication shops as establishments primarily engaged in changing motor oil and lubricating the chassis of automotive vehicles. The system is used for establishment-based federal economic statistics classified by industry for the United States, Mexico and Canada.

The three main sources of data used as inputs in the channel forecast model are U.S. Economic census data, Industrial Marketing Research Inc. and IHS Markit Inc. - for economic data as well as industry data provided by its automotive group, which includes the former R.L. Polk.

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