Key points

  • Many analysts forecast that by the middle of this century, the global light-duty automobile market will make a big shift away from vehicles powered only by ICEs to BEVs and PHEVs.
  • Such a development would significantly reduce PCMO demand from the levels it would reach were it not for EVs.
  • The lubricant industry could begin to feel that impact within a decade, but disruption will be reduced because of continued growth in the population of ICE-only vehicles.
  • These forecasts are based on assumptions that the main factors behind increasing EV uptake would shift from government subsidies and other financial incentives to mandates and punitive regulations, such as vehicular emissions standards and then to EV cost advantages for consumers.
  • These forecasts are based on assumptions that the main factors behind increasing EV uptake would shift from government subsidies and other financial incentives to mandates and punitive regulations, such as vehicular emissions standards and then to EV cost advantages for consumers.
  • These forecasts depend on numerous developments that have yet to occur.