Looking ahead, online electric vehicles sales data provider EV Volumes forecasts that global EV sales (BEvs and plugin hybrids) will reach 14.1 million units in 2023, accounting for EV sales growth of 34% over 2022.
Meanwhile, the entire light-vehicle market, which includes passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, is only predicted to rise by 9%. EVs are therefore expected to take a higher 16% share of the global light-vehicle market this year.
This market penetration rate is slightly lower than predictions made earlier in the year, especially as the 2023 EV share in China is now forecast to be 33%, down from 35% previously. However, over 300,000 additional EV sales are now expected globally in 2023, largely thanks to a stronger outlook for total light-vehicle sales in China.
EV uptake has weakened in North America, while recent subsidy cuts in European markets like Germany, Sweden and the UK have damaged demand, particularly for PHEVs. Accordingly, the global EV share is predicted to be lower throughout the decade than previously forecast, reaching 23.5% in 2025, then 45.3% in 2030, and 68.4% in 2035.
Despite the ruinous start to 2020 for sales of EVs of all kinds, there are now more than 7.5 million plug-in four-wheelers in the world. The lion’s share are still in China and the car that has outsold all others, even in the depths of the pandemic freeze, was the Tesla Model 3, which sold more than the next five models combined.
Global plug-in sales in H1 2020 passed 717,000 units, capturing a market share of 2.7% of passenger car registrations. The U.S. saw the highest market share of plug-in sales during that period of 5.5%, followed by China at 4.3%, up from 4% in the same period the year before, then Europe as a whole at 3.8%.
